IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ausecr/v55y2022i1p40-70.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Climbing the Jobs Ladder Slower: Young People in a Weak Labour Market

Author

Listed:
  • Bryn Lampe
  • Catherine de Fontenay
  • Jessica Nugent
  • Patrick Jomini

Abstract

The downturn in Australia's labour market from 2008–2018 was reflected in dimensions other than unemployment. We use the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia data set to explore one key dimension—occupational choice. Using an occupational ranking (AUSEI06) based on earning potential and education level, we show young graduates (aged 20–35) found work in lower‐scored occupations after 2010. We examine potential heterogeneity of the occupational outcomes using Markov transitions between quartiles of the occupational distribution. We find the likelihood of transitioning to better quartiles worsened over the 2001–2018 period, suggesting poor initial outcomes can have long‐term effects on one's occupation.

Suggested Citation

  • Bryn Lampe & Catherine de Fontenay & Jessica Nugent & Patrick Jomini, 2022. "Climbing the Jobs Ladder Slower: Young People in a Weak Labour Market," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 55(1), pages 40-70, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecr:v:55:y:2022:i:1:p:40-70
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-8462.12444
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.12444
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1467-8462.12444?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yin King Fok & Rosanna Scutella & Roger Wilkins, 2015. "The Low-Pay No-Pay Cycle: Are There Systematic Differences across Demographic Groups?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(6), pages 872-896, December.
    2. McGuinness, Seamus & Sloane, Peter J., 2011. "Labour market mismatch among UK graduates: An analysis using REFLEX data," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 130-145, February.
    3. Berge, Wiljan van den, 2018. "Bad start, bad match? The early career effects of graduating in a recession for vocational and academic graduates," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 75-96.
    4. Lamo, Ana & Messina, Julián, 2010. "Formal education, mismatch and wages after transition: Assessing the impact of unobserved heterogeneity using matching estimators," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1086-1099, December.
    5. Naidoo,Darian & Packard,Truman G. & Auwalin,Ilmiawan, 2015. "Mobility, scarring and job quality in Indonesia?s labor market," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7484, The World Bank.
    6. Alexander Mosthaf, 2014. "Do Scarring Effects of Low-Wage Employment and Non-Employment Differ BETWEEN Levels of Qualification?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 61(2), pages 154-177, May.
    7. Didier Fouarge & Ruud Muffels, 2009. "Working Part-Time in The British, German and Dutch Labour Market: Scarring for the Wage Career?," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 129(2), pages 217-226.
    8. Knights, Stephen & Harris, Mark N & Loundes, Joanne, 2002. "Dynamic Relationships in the Australian Labour Market: Heterogeneity and State Dependence," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 78(242), pages 284-298, September.
    9. Michael J. Peel & Gerald H. Makepeace, 2012. "Differential Audit Quality, Propensity Score Matching and Rosenbaum Bounds for Confounding Variables," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(5-6), pages 606-648, June.
    10. Kjetil Storesletten & Chris I. Telmer & Amir Yaron, 2004. "Cyclical Dynamics in Idiosyncratic Labor Market Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(3), pages 695-717, June.
    11. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    12. Sicherman, Nachum, 1991. ""Overeducation" in the Labor Market," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(2), pages 101-122, April.
    13. Joseph G. Altonji & Lisa B. Kahn & Jamin D. Speer, 2016. "Cashier or Consultant? Entry Labor Market Conditions, Field of Study, and Career Success," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S1), pages 361-401.
    14. Michael Coelli & Roger Wilkins, 2009. "Credential Changes and Education Earnings Premia in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 85(270), pages 239-259, September.
    15. Stephen Knights & Mark N. Harris & Joanne Loundes, 2002. "Dynamic Relationships in the Australian Labour Market: Heterogeneity and State Dependence," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 78(242), pages 284-298, September.
    16. Kostas Mavromaras & Seamus Mcguinness & Yin King Fok, 2009. "Assessing the Incidence and Wage Effects of Overskilling in the Australian Labour Market," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 85(268), pages 60-72, March.
    17. Eliza Forsythe, 2019. "Careers within Firms: Occupational Mobility Over the Lifecycle," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 33(3), pages 241-277, September.
    18. DiPrete, Thomas A. & Gangl, Markus, 2004. "Assessing bias in the estimation of causal effects: Rosenbaum bounds on matching estimators and instrumental variables estimation with imperfect instruments," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Labor Market Policy and Employment SP I 2004-101, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    19. Kostas Mavromaras & Peter Sloane & Zhang Wei, 2015. "The scarring effects of unemployment, low pay and skills under-utilization in Australia compared," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(23), pages 2413-2429, May.
    20. Arulampalam, Wiji, 2001. "Is Unemployment Really Scarring? Effects of Unemployment Experiences on Wages," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(475), pages 585-606, November.
    21. Ho, Daniel & Imai, Kosuke & King, Gary & Stuart, Elizabeth A., 2011. "MatchIt: Nonparametric Preprocessing for Parametric Causal Inference," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 42(i08).
    22. Bruce A. Craig & Peter P. Sendi, 2002. "Estimation of the transition matrix of a discrete‐time Markov chain," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 33-42, January.
    23. Kevin Ralston & Zhiqiang Feng & Dawn Everington & Chris Dibben, 2016. "Do young people not in education, employment or training experience long-term occupational scarring? A longitudinal analysis over 20 years of follow-up," Contemporary Social Science, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2-3), pages 203-221, July.
    24. Alexis Diamond & Jasjeet S. Sekhon, 2013. "Genetic Matching for Estimating Causal Effects: A General Multivariate Matching Method for Achieving Balance in Observational Studies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(3), pages 932-945, July.
    25. Sekhon, Jasjeet S., 2011. "Multivariate and Propensity Score Matching Software with Automated Balance Optimization: The Matching package for R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 42(i07).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mattia Filomena, 2021. "Unemployment Scarring Effects: A Symposium On Empirical Literature," Working Papers 453, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    2. Sandra M. Leitner, 2022. "A skill‐specific dynamic labour supply and labour demand framework: A scenario analysis for the Western Balkan countries to 2030," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 36(4), pages 471-504, December.
    3. Morsy, Hanan & Mukasa, Adamon, 2019. "Youth Jobs, Skill and Educational Mismatches in Africa," MPRA Paper 100394, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Hanan Morsy & Adamon N. Mukasa, 2019. "Working Paper 326 - Youth Jobs, Skill and Educational Mismatches in Africa," Working Paper Series 2452, African Development Bank.
    5. Inmaculada Garc�a-Mainar & V�ctor M. Montuenga-G�mez, 2017. "Subjective educational mismatch and signalling in Spain," Documentos de Trabajo dt2017-03, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad de Zaragoza.
    6. Eleni Kalfa & Matloob Piracha, 2017. "Immigrants’ educational mismatch and the penalty of over-education," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(5), pages 462-481, September.
    7. Kampelmann, Stephan & Rycx, François, 2012. "The impact of educational mismatch on firm productivity: Evidence from linked panel data," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 918-931.
    8. Lamo, Ana & Messina, Julián, 2010. "Formal education, mismatch and wages after transition: Assessing the impact of unobserved heterogeneity using matching estimators," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1086-1099, December.
    9. Márta K. Radó, 2020. "Tracking the Effects of Parenthood on Subjective Well-Being: Evidence from Hungary," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 21(6), pages 2069-2094, August.
    10. Rycx, François & Santosuosso, Giulia & Vermeylen, Guillaume, 2022. "The Over-education Wage Penalty Among PhD Holders: A European Perspective," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1126, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    11. Kiersztyn, Anna, 2013. "Stuck in a mismatch? The persistence of overeducation during twenty years of the post-communist transition in Poland," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 78-91.
    12. Nick Carroll, 2006. "Explaining Unemployment Duration in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 82(258), pages 298-314, September.
    13. Stijn Baert & Dieter Verhaest, 2019. "Unemployment or Overeducation: Which is a Worse Signal to Employers?," De Economist, Springer, vol. 167(1), pages 1-21, March.
    14. Alessi, Lucia & Battiston, Stefano & Kvedaras, Virmantas, 2021. "Over with carbon? Investors' reaction to the Paris Agreement and the US withdrawal," Working Papers 2021-12, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    15. Cain Polidano & Ha Vu, 2012. "Labour market impacts from disability onset," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2012-583, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    16. Luis A. De los Santos‐Montero & Boris E. Bravo‐Ureta, 2017. "Productivity effects and natural resource management: econometric evidence from POSAF‐II in Nicaragua," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(4), pages 220-233, November.
    17. Wendimu, Mengistu Assefa & Henningsen, Arne & Gibbon, Peter, 2016. "Sugarcane Outgrowers in Ethiopia: “Forced” to Remain Poor?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 84-97.
    18. Livingston, Michael & Fernandez-Cornejo, Jorge & Unger, Jesse & Osteen, Craig & Schimmelpfennig, David & Park, Tim & Lambert, Dayton, 2015. "The Economics of Glyphosate Resistance Management in Corn and Soybean Production," Economic Research Report 205083, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    19. Colin P. Green & Gareth D. Leeves, 2013. "Job Security, Financial Security and Worker Well-being: New Evidence on the Effects of Flexible Employment," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 60(2), pages 121-138, May.
    20. Sascha Sardadvar, 2018. "Is a Company’s Access to Private Equity and Venture Capital Affected by Location or Management Diversity? Some Empirical Evidence from Austria," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 13(7), pages 1-45, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ausecr:v:55:y:2022:i:1:p:40-70. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/mimelau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.