The Low-Pay No-Pay Cycle: Are There Systematic Differences across Demographic Groups?
AbstractWe investigate transitions between unemployment, low-paid employment and higher-paid employment using household panel data for the period 2001 to 2011. Dynamic panel data methods are used to estimate the effects of labour force status on subsequent labour force status. A distinctive feature of our study is the investigation of heterogeneity in the effects of unemployment and low-paid employment on future employment prospects. We find that there is state dependence in both unemployment and low-paid employment and clear evidence of a low-pay no-pay cycle for both men and women. Significant differences in effects across different subgroups of the population are, however, found. Typically, the young and the better educated face less severe penalties from unemployment or low-paid employment, and, for women, the cycle between low pay and no pay varies across subgroups. Moreover, in the case of men who have completed secondary schooling but have no further qualifications, low-paid employment actually decreases the chances of entering higher-paid employment by more than unemployment does. This is not the case for women, however, who clearly have a higher likelihood of entering higher-paid employment from low-paid employment than from unemployment, regardless of their age, education level or other characteristics.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne in its series Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series with number wp2013n32.
Date of creation: Oct 2013
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Employment dynamics; state dependence; heterogeneous impacts;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General
- J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
- J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-10-18 (All new papers)
- NEP-LAB-2013-10-18 (Labour Economics)
- NEP-LMA-2013-10-18 (Labor Markets - Supply, Demand, & Wages)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Knights, Stephen & Harris, Mark N & Loundes, Joanne, 2002.
"Dynamic Relationships in the Australian Labour Market: Heterogeneity and State Dependence,"
The Economic Record,
The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 78(242), pages 284-98, September.
- Stephen Knights & Mark Harris & Joanne Loundes, 2000. "Dynamic Relationships in the Australian Labour Market: Heterogeneity and State Dependence," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2000n06, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
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