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Welfare Implications Of More Accurate Rational Forecast Prices

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  • John W. Freebairn

Abstract

Models are constructed to assess the welfare effects for producers, consumers and society of producers using forecast prices based on more accurate estimates of variables causing shifts in the demand for and supply of commodities. The basic model is a stochastic cobweb model in which producers' forecast price is the rational forecast price. The model is extended for many commodities, for partial producer response to more accurate forecast prices, and to include stock holding. In terms of economic surplus, producers and consumers gain from more accurate estimates of demand shift variables, producers gain and consumers lose from more accurate estimates of supply shift variables, and in both cases there is a net society gain.
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  • John W. Freebairn, 1976. "Welfare Implications Of More Accurate Rational Forecast Prices," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 20(2), pages 92-102, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ajarec:v:20:y:1976:i:2:p:92-102
    DOI: j.1467-8489.1976.tb00179.x
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    1. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1974. "Price Expectations and the Welfare Gains from Price Stabilization," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 56(4), pages 706-716.
    2. David J. Smyth, 1973. "Effect of Public Price Forecasts on Market Price Variation: A Stochastic Cobweb Example," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 55(1), pages 83-88.
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    1. Norton, George W., 1987. "Evaluating Social Science Research in Agriculture," Evaluating Agricultural Research and Productivity, Proceedings of a Workshop, Atlanta, Georgia, January 29-30, 1987, Miscellaneous Publication 52 50028, University of Minnesota, Agricultural Experiment Station.
    2. Hazell, Peter B.R., 1988. "Risk, Market Failure and Agricultural Policy," Regional Research Projects > 1988: S-180 Annual Meeting, March 20-23, 1988, Savannah, Georgia 272777, Regional Research Projects > S-180: An Economic Analysis of Risk Management Strategies for Agricultural Production Firms.
    3. Gardner, Bruce L., 1997. "Returns to Policy-Related Social Science Research in Agriculture," Working Papers 197845, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    4. Lindner, Robert K., 1987. "Toward A Framework For Evaluating Agricultural Economics Research," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 31(2), pages 1-17, August.
    5. David E. Schimmelpfennig & George W. Norton, 2005. "Assessing The Value Of Economics Research: The Case Of The Bias In The Consumer Price Index," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 23(4), pages 625-635, October.
    6. Byerlee, Derek R. & Anderson, Jock R., 1982. "Risk, Utility and the Value of Information in Farmer Decision Making," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 50(03), pages 1-16, December.
    7. Schimmelpfennig, David E. & Norton, George W., 2000. "What Value Is Agricultural Economics Research?," 2000 Annual meeting, July 30-August 2, Tampa, FL 21773, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    8. Norton, George W. & Schuh, G. Edward, 1981. "Evaluating Returns to Social Science Research: Issues and Possible Methods," Evaluation of Agricultural Research, Proceedings of a Workshop, Minneapolis, MN, May 12-13, 1980, Miscellaneous Publication 8 49076, University of Minnesota, Agricultural Experiment Station.
    9. Ryan, Jim, 2002. "Assessing the impact of food policy research: rice trade policies in Viet Nam," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 1-29, February.

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