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Forecasting For Australian Agriculture

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  • John W. Freebairn

Abstract

The paper provides a review of the objectives of forecasts and of the techniques for generating forecasts in the context of agriculture. Forecasts provide information to facilitate decision making. The techniques are evaluated in terms of assumptions about the processes generating the forecast variables, their relative requirements for time, data and other resources, and their relative forecast accuracy. An evaluation of naive, informal model and econometric model forecasts of Australian agricultural commodity prices and production levels is reported.
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  • John W. Freebairn, 1975. "Forecasting For Australian Agriculture," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 19(3), pages 154-174, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ajarec:v:19:y:1975:i:3:p:154-174
    DOI: j.1467-8489.1975.tb00156.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Vere, David T. & Griffith, Garry R., 1995. "Forecasting in the Australian Lamb Industry: the Influence of Alternate Price Determination Processes," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 63(03), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Vere, David T. & Griffith, Garry R., 1990. "Comparative Forecast Accuracy In The New South Wales Prime Lamb Market," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 34(2), pages 1-15, August.
    3. Freebairn, John W., 1978. "An Evaluation of Outlook Information for Australian Agricultural Commodities," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 46(03), pages 1-21, December.
    4. Gellatly, Colin, 1979. "Forecasting N.S.W. Beef Production: An Evaluation of Alternative Techniques," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 47(02), pages 1-14, August.
    5. Yu Zhao & Xi Zhang & Zhongshun Shi & Lei He, 2017. "Grain Price Forecasting Using a Hybrid Stochastic Method," Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research (APJOR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 34(05), pages 1-24, October.
    6. Bathgate, Andrew D. & Kingwell, Ross S. & O'Connell, Michael, 1999. "WOOL’S FUTURE in WESTERN AUSTRALIA and the R&D IMPLICATIONS: A Discussion Paper," 1999 Conference (43th), January 20-22, 1999, Christchurch, New Zealand 123761, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    7. Nelson, Rohan & Cameron, Andrew & Xia, Charley & Gooday, Peter, 2022. "The ABARES Approach to Forecasting Agricultural Commodity Markets," Australasian Agribusiness Review, University of Melbourne, Department of Agriculture and Food Systems, vol. 30(6), November.
    8. Lee, B.M.S. & Bui-Lan, Anh, 1982. "Use Of Errors Of Prediction In Improving Forecast Accuracy: An Application To Wool In Australia," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 26(1), pages 1-14, April.
    9. Kingwell, Ross S., 2002. "Issues for Farm Management in the 21st Century: A view from the West," 2002 Conference (46th), February 13-15, 2002, Canberra, Australia 173982, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    10. Hardaker, J. Brian, 1985. "Beliefs And Values In Agricultural Economics Research," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 29(2), pages 1-10, August.
    11. Gruen, Fred H.G., 1998. "A quarter of a century of Australian agricultural economics - some personal reflections," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 42(2), pages 1-14.
    12. Cameron, Andrew & Nelson, Rohan, 2022. "Enabling Users to Evaluate the Accuracy of ABARES Agricultural Forecasts," Australasian Agribusiness Review, University of Melbourne, Department of Agriculture and Food Systems, vol. 30(7), November.
    13. Stent, W.R., 1976. "Critique Of The Methodology Of Australian Agricultural Economics," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 20(1), pages 1-18, April.
    14. Jolly, L.O. & Wong, Gordon, 1987. "Composite Forecasting: some empirical results using BAE short-term forecasts," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 55(01), pages 1-23, April.

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