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OPTIM: a quarterly forecasting tool for French GDP

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  • Barhoumi, K.
  • Brunhes-Lesage, V.
  • Ferrara, L.
  • Pluyaud, B.
  • Rouvreau, B.
  • Darné, O.

Abstract

The OPTIM model helps to forecast each month the growth rate of French GDP and its main components for the coincident quarter and the quarter ahead. The model uses a wide range of monthly macroeconomic data and survey data, selected by an automatic statistical procedure.

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File URL: http://www.banque-france.fr/gb/publications/telechar/bulletin/qsa/qsa13/qsa13etud_3.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Banque de France in its journal Quarterly selection of articles - bulletin de la Banque de France.

Volume (Year): (2008)
Issue (Month): 13 (Autumn)
Pages: 31-47

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Handle: RePEc:bfr:quarte:2008:13:03

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Postal: Banque de France 31 Rue Croix des Petits Champs LABOLOG - 49-1404 75049 PARIS
Web page: http://www.banque-france.fr/
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Related research

Keywords: GDP forecasting; bridge model; general-to-specifi c approach (Gets).;

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References

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  1. Banbura, Marta & Rünstler, Gerhard, 2011. "A look into the factor model black box: Publication lags and the role of hard and soft data in forecasting GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 333-346, April.
  2. Schumacher, Christian, 2005. "Forecasting German GDP using alternative factor models based on large datasets," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,24, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  3. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2002. "Do Financial Variables Help Forecasting Inflation and Real Activity in the Euro Area?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3146, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Baffigi, Alberto & Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2004. "Bridge models to forecast the euro area GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 447-460.
  5. Barhoumi, K. & Brunhes-Lesage, V. & Darné, O. & Ferrara, L. & Pluyaud, B. & Rouvreau, B., 2008. "Monthly forecasting of French GDP: A revised version of the OPTIM model," Working papers 222, Banque de France.
  6. Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, 1999. "Data mining reconsidered: encompassing and the general-to-specific approach to specification search," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 167-191.
  7. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
  8. Irac, D. & Sédillot, F., 2002. "Short-Run Assessment of French Economic Activity Using OPTIM," Working papers 88, Banque de France.
  9. Franck Sédillot & Nigel Pain, 2003. "Indicator Models of Real GDP Growth in Selected OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 364, OECD Publishing.
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