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Optimal Residual-Based Tests for Fractional Cointegration and Exchange Rate Dynamics

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  • Nielsen M.O.

Abstract

We propose a Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test of the null hypothesis of cointegration in fractionally cointegrated models. The test statistic utilizes fully modified residuals to cancel the endogeneity and serial correlation biases, and we show that standard asymptotics apply. With i.i.d. Gaussian errors the asymptotic Gaussian power envelope of all invariant (invariant and unbiased) tests is achieved by the one-sided (two-sided) test. The finite sample properties are illustrated by a Monte Carlo study. In an application to the dynamics among exchange rates for seven major currencies against the US dollar some evidence of the existence of a cointegrating relation is found.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.

Volume (Year): 22 (2004)
Issue (Month): (July)
Pages: 331-345

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Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:22:y:2004:p:331-345

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Marcel Aloy & Gilles De Truchis, 2012. "Estimation and Testing for Fractional Cointegration," Working Papers halshs-00793206, HAL.
  2. Katarzyna Lasak & Carlos Velasco, 2013. "Fractional cointegration rank estimation," CREATES Research Papers 2013-08, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  3. Christensen, Bent Jesper & Kruse, Robinson & Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2013. "A unified framework for testing in the linear regression model under unknown order of fractional integration," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-519, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  4. Katsumi Shimotsu & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2006. "Determining the Cointegrating Rank in Nonstationary Fractional Systems by the Exact Local Whittle Approach," Working Papers 1029, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  5. Mauro Costantini & Roy Cerqueti, 2007. "Non parametric Fractional Cointegration Analysis," ISAE Working Papers 78, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
  6. Frank S. Nielsen, 2009. "Local Whittle estimation of multivariate fractionally integrated processes," CREATES Research Papers 2009-38, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  7. Morten Orregaard Nielsen, 2004. "Efficient inference in multivariate fractionally integrated time series models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(1), pages 63-97, 06.
  8. Xu Cheng & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2009. "Cointegrating Rank Selection in Models with Time-Varying Variance," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1688, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  9. Banerjee, Anindya & Urga, Giovanni, 2005. "Modelling structural breaks, long memory and stock market volatility: an overview," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 1-34.
  10. Avarucci, Marco & Velasco, Carlos, 2009. "A Wald test for the cointegration rank in nonstationary fractional systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 151(2), pages 178-189, August.

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