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Semiparametric Analysis of Stationary Fractional Cointegration and the Implied-Realized Volatility Relation in High-Frequency Options Data

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Author Info
Bent Jesper Christensen
Morten Ø. Nielsen () (Department of Economics, University of Aarhus, Denmark)

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Abstract

We consider semiparametric frequency domain analysis of cointegration between long memory processes, i.e. fractional cointegration. This concept allows derivation of useful long-run relations even among stationary long memory processes. The approach uses a degenerating part of the periodogram near the origin to form a frequency domain least squares (FDLS) estimator of the cointegrating relation. The resulting estimator is consistent for arbitrary short-run dynamics, whereas the latter would have to be specified correctly in any parametric approach. We derive the asymptotic distribution theory for the FDLS estimator of the cointegration vector in the stationary long memory case. The new theory requires a general theorem on the asymptotic order of the covariance between the cross-periodograms of stationary long memory processes, which we provide. The motivating example is the relation between the volatility realized in the stock market and the associated implicit volatility derived from option prices. An application to high-frequency U.S. stock index and option data is offered.

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Paper provided by School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus in its series Economics Working Papers with number 2001-4.

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Handle: RePEc:aah:aarhec:2001-4

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Related research
Keywords: Long Memory; Stationary Fractional Cointegration; Semiparametric Inference; Realized Volatility; High-Frequency Options Data;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Lobato, I. & Robinson, P. M., 1996. "Averaged periodogram estimation of long memory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 303-324, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Katsumi Shimotsu & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2002. "Exact Local Whittle Estimation of Fractional Integration," Economics Discussion Papers 535, University of Essex, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "A Fractional Cointegration Analysis of Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 103-12, January.
  5. Lobato, Ignacio N & Velasco, Carlos, 2000. "Long Memory in Stock-Market Trading Volume," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(4), pages 410-27, October.
  6. Lobato, Ignacio N., 1999. "A semiparametric two-step estimator in a multivariate long memory model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 129-153, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Christensen, B. J. & Prabhala, N. R., 1998. "The relation between implied and realized volatility1," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 125-150, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Marinucci, D. & Robinson, P. M., 2001. "Semiparametric fractional cointegration analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 225-247, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Carlos Velasco, 2003. "Gaussian Semi-parametric Estimation of Fractional Cointegration," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(3), pages 345-378, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Juan J. Dolado & Francisco Mármol, 1996. "Efficient Estimation of Cointegrating Relationships Among Higher Order and Fractionally Integrated Processes," Banco de España Working Papers 9617, Banco de España.
  13. Robert C. Merton, 1973. "Theory of Rational Option Pricing," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(1), pages 141-183, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Juan J. Dolado & Francisco Mármol, 1996. "Efficient Estimation of Cointegrating Relationships Among Higher Order and Fractionally Integrated Processes," Banco de España Working Papers 9617, Banco de España.
  15. Michael Dueker & Richard Startz, 1998. "Maximum-Likelihood Estimation Of Fractional Cointegration With An Application To U.S. And Canadian Bond Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 420-426, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Ebens, Heiko, 2001. "The distribution of realized stock return volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 43-76, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Javier Hualde & Peter M Robinson, 2006. "Semiparametric Estimation of Fractional Cointegration," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2006/502, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  2. Javier Hualde & Peter M Robinson, 2006. "Root-N-Consistent Estimation Of Weakfractional Cointegration," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2006/499, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE. [Downloadable!]
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