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Gaussian Semi-parametric Estimation of Fractional Cointegration

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Carlos Velasco

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Abstract

We analyse consistent estimation of the memory parameters of a nonstationary fractionally cointegrated vector time series. Assuming that the cointegrating relationship has substantially less memory than the observed series, we show that a multi-variate Gaussian semi-parametric estimate, based on initial consistent estimates and possibly tapered observations, is asymptotically normal. The estimates of the memory parameters can rely either on original (for stationary errors) or on differenced residuals (for nonstationary errors) assuming only a convergence rate for a preliminary slope estimate. If this rate is fast enough, semi-parametric memory estimates are not affected by the use of residuals and retain the same asymptotic distribution as if the true cointegrating relationship were known. Only local conditions on the spectral densities around zero frequency for linear processes are assumed. We concentrate on a bivariate system but discuss multi-variate generalizations and show the performance of the estimates with simulated and real data. Copyright 2003 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Time Series Analysis.

Volume (Year): 24 (2003)
Issue (Month): 3 (05)
Pages: 345-378
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jtsera:v:24:y:2003:i:3:p:345-378

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  1. Nielsen, Morten Oe., . "Semiparametric Estimation in Time Series Regression with Long Range Dependence," Economics Working Papers 2002-17, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Hurvich, Cliiford & Wang, Yi, 2006. "A Pure-Jump Transaction-Level Price Model Yielding Cointegration, Leverage, and Nonsynchronous Trading Effects," MPRA Paper 1413, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Katsumi Shimotsu, 2003. "Exact Local Whittle Estimation of Fractionally Cointegrated Systems," Economics Discussion Papers 570, University of Essex, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Fabrizio Iacone & Peter M Robinson, 2004. "Cointegration in Fractional Systems with Deterministic Trends," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2004/476, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Morten Oerregaard Nielsen, . "Local Whittle Analysis of Stationary Fractional Cointegration," Economics Working Papers 2002-8, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  6. Katsumi Shimotsu & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2006. "Determining the Cointegrating Rank in Nonstationary Fractional Systems by the Exact Local Whittle Approach," Working Papers 1029, Queen's University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Willa Chen & Clifford Hurvich, 2004. "Semiparametric Estimation of Fractional Cointegrating Subspaces," Econometrics 0412007, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  8. Peter M Robinson, 2007. "Multiple Local Whittle Estimation in StationarySystems," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2007/525, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  9. Bent Jesper Christensen & Morten Ø. Nielsen, . "Semiparametric Analysis of Stationary Fractional Cointegration and the Implied-Realized Volatility Relation in High-Frequency Options Data," Economics Working Papers 2001-4, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  10. Frank S. Nielsen, 2008. "Local polynomial Whittle estimation covering non-stationary fractional processes," CREATES Research Papers 2008-28, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
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