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Econometric Evaluation of the Elasticity of the Foreign Trade through Bi-Spectral Analysis

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  • Vesselin Hadjiev
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    Abstract

    This study presents a study of the elasticity of the foreign trade toward the foreign exchange rate of Czech Republic, Slovak Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovenia and Bulgaria for the period from 1992 to 2000. As a method for evaluation of the dependency between the ex-port, import and the foreign exchange rate is used the spectral analysis, especially the bi-spectral analysis. For this purpose are made a review and generalization of the econometric studies of the elas-ticity of the foreign trade in the last decades, analysis of the opportunities of the bi-specter for presenting the elasticity, solutions of information problems, connected with the current empirical study. Determined is a specific revealing of the elasticity of the foreign trade of the countries from Central and Easter Europe. First, determined is presence of income effect in the revealing of the dependency, i.e. low elasticity of the export and high elasticity of the import. Second, de-termined is that the delay in the revealing of the elasticity varies between 2 and 8 months de-pending on the type of transaction and the country.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute in its journal Economic Studies.

    Volume (Year): (2001)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 150-167

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    Handle: RePEc:bas:econst:y:2001:i:2:p:150-167

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    1. Helen B. Junz & Rudolf R. Rhomberg, 1973. "Price competitiveness in export trade among industrial countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 22, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Mills, Terence C. & Pentecost, Eric J., 2001. "The real exchange rate and the output response in four EU accession countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 418-430, December.
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    11. Paul Krugman, 1988. "Differences In Income Elasticities and Trends in Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 2761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Robert E. Lipsey, 1994. "U.S. Foreign Trade and the Balance of Payments, 1800-1913," NBER Working Papers 4710, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. R. F. Engle, 1972. "Band Spectrum Regressions," Working papers 96, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    14. McPheters, Lee R & Stronge, William B, 1979. "Impact of the Terms of Trade on the U.S. Trade Balance: A Cross-Spectral Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 61(3), pages 451-55, August.
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