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Oil wealth and real exchange rates: The FEER for Norway

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  • Q. Farooq Akram

    (Norges Bank)

Abstract

It is often argued that Norway’s sizeable net foreign assets based on its petroleum wealth imply an appreciation of its real exchange rate to a permanently strong level. We investigate this issue within the framework of the fundamental equilibrium real exchange rate (FEER) approach. It is shown that the strength of the FEER depends on the share of imports that can be financed by petroleum (based) revenues. Projections of the FEER over a long horizon suggest that the petroleum wealth implies a stronger equilibrium exchange rate than the rate that would have balanced (non-petroleum) foreign trade in each period. However, the FEER depreciates steadily over time with growth in imports relative to petroleum revenues and converges towards the rate that balances foreign trade. A permanently strong FEER presupposes that e.g. imports stay constant over time. Our results are in accord with the behaviour of the real exchange before and after the discovery of Norway’s petroleum resources.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Money Macro and Finance Research Group in its series Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 with number 33.

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Date of creation: 17 Sep 2004
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Handle: RePEc:mmf:mmfc04:33

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  1. Krugman, Paul, 1989. "Differences in income elasticities and trends in real exchange rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1031-1046, May.
  2. Corden, W M, 1984. "Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 359-80, November.
  3. Kremers, Jeroen J M & Ericsson, Neil R & Dolado, Juan J, 1992. "The Power of Cointegration Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 325-48, August.
  4. Hinkle, Lawrence E. & Monteil, Peter J. (ed.), 1999. "Exchange Rate Misalignment: Concepts and Measurement for Developing Countries," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195211269.
  5. Marquez, Jaime, 1990. "Bilateral Trade Elasticities," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(1), pages 70-77, February.
  6. Houthakker, Hendrik S & Magee, Stephen P, 1969. "Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(2), pages 111-25, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Charalambos G. Tsangarides & Yasser Abdih, 2006. "FEER for the CFA Franc," IMF Working Papers 06/236, International Monetary Fund.

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