Oil wealth and real exchange rates: The FEER for Norway
AbstractIt is often argued that Norway’s sizeable net foreign assets based on its petroleum wealth imply an appreciation of its real exchange rate to a permanently strong level. We investigate this issue within the framework of the fundamental equilibrium real exchange rate (FEER) approach. It is shown that the strength of the FEER depends on the share of imports that can be financed by petroleum (based) revenues. Projections of the FEER over a long horizon suggest that the petroleum wealth implies a stronger equilibrium exchange rate than the rate that would have balanced (non-petroleum) foreign trade in each period. However, the FEER depreciates steadily over time with growth in imports relative to petroleum revenues and converges towards the rate that balances foreign trade. A permanently strong FEER presupposes that e.g. imports stay constant over time. Our results are in accord with the behaviour of the real exchange before and after the discovery of Norway’s petroleum resources.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Norges Bank in its series Working Paper with number 2004/16.
Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 17 Nov 2004
Date of revision:
Equilibrium real exchange rate; FEER; econometric analysis;
Other versions of this item:
- Q. Farooq Akram, 2004. "Oil wealth and real exchange rates: The FEER for Norway," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 33, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
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