Construction of composite leading indicator for the Slovak economy
AbstractCyclical performance of economies in a turbulent environment is forcing researchers to search for early signals of turning points between the phases of slowdowns and accelerations. The most appropriate tool to solve this problem is the composite leading indicator (CLI), which is an aggregate index of several individual indicators proved to be statistical relevant for analyzing and forecasting of significant macro-economic indicators (reference series). The leading indicator provides qualitative information of the most probable performance of a reference cycle (i.e. GDP, Industrial production) with a significant lead-time of several months. INFOSTAT (the research institution of the Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic) is about to create and use its own periodically published composite leading indicator (now the only CLI for Slovakia is published by OECD) as a source of new information about so far non-investigated economic relations with the aim to improve the quality of short-term forecasts.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration in its journal Analele Stiintifice ale Universitatii "Alexandru Ioan Cuza" din Iasi.
Volume (Year): 55 (2008)
Issue (Month): (November)
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Universitatea Al. I. Cuza; B-dul Carol I nr. 22; Iasi
Phone: 004 0232 201070
Fax: 004 0232 217000
Web page: http://anale.feaa.uaic.ro/anale/
More information through EDIRC
Composite leading indicator; turning points; cyclical analysis; time series;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Victor Zarnowitz & Ataman Ozyildirim, 2001.
"Time Series Decomposition and Measurement of Business Cycles, Trends and Growth Cycles,"
Economics Program Working Papers
01-03, The Conference Board, Economics Program.
- Zarnowitz, Victor & Ozyildirim, Ataman, 2006. "Time series decomposition and measurement of business cycles, trends and growth cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1717-1739, October.
- Victor Zarnowitz & Ataman Ozyildirim, 2002. "Time Series Decomposition and Measurement of Business Cycles, Trends and Growth Cycles," NBER Working Papers 8736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2000. "Reference Cycles: The NBER Methodology Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 2400, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Stephen G. Hall & Nicholas G. Zonzilos, 2003. "An Indicator Measuring Underlying Economic Activity in Greece," Working Papers 04, Bank of Greece.
- Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling & Puah, Chin-Hong & Abu Mansor, Shazali & Liew, Venus Khim-Sen, 2012. "Early warning indicator of economic vulnerability," MPRA Paper 39944, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling & Abu Mansor, Shazali & Puah, Chin-Hong & Liew, Venus Khim-Sen, 2012. "Forecasting malaysian business cycle movement: empirical evidence from composite leading indicator," MPRA Paper 36649, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sireteanu Napoleon-Alexandru).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.