Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Construction of composite leading indicator for the Slovak economy

Contents:

Author Info

  • Miroslav Klúcik

    ()

  • Ján Haluška

    ()
    (Institute of Informatics and Statistics, Socio-economic Analyses and Forecasts Division, Dúbravská cesta 3, 845 24 Bratislava, Slovak Republic)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    Cyclical performance of economies in a turbulent environment is forcing researchers to search for early signals of turning points between the phases of slowdowns and accelerations. The most appropriate tool to solve this problem is the composite leading indicator (CLI), which is an aggregate index of several individual indicators proved to be statistical relevant for analyzing and forecasting of significant macro-economic indicators (reference series). The leading indicator provides qualitative information of the most probable performance of a reference cycle (i.e. GDP, Industrial production) with a significant lead-time of several months. INFOSTAT (the research institution of the Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic) is about to create and use its own periodically published composite leading indicator (now the only CLI for Slovakia is published by OECD) as a source of new information about so far non-investigated economic relations with the aim to improve the quality of short-term forecasts.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://anale.feaa.uaic.ro/anale/resurse/038_S01_Klucik_Halushka.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://anale.feaa.uaic.ro/anale/ro/Arhiva%202008%20-%20Klucik/245
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration in its journal Analele Stiintifice ale Universitatii "Alexandru Ioan Cuza" din Iasi.

    Volume (Year): 55 (2008)
    Issue (Month): (November)
    Pages: 363-370

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:aic:journl:y:2008:v:55:p:363-370

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: Universitatea Al. I. Cuza; B-dul Carol I nr. 22; Iasi
    Phone: 004 0232 201070
    Fax: 004 0232 217000
    Email:
    Web page: http://anale.feaa.uaic.ro/anale/
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords: Composite leading indicator; turning points; cyclical analysis; time series;

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2000. "Reference Cycles: The NBER Methodology Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 2400, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Victor Zarnowitz & Ataman Ozyildirim, 2002. "Time Series Decomposition and Measurement of Business Cycles, Trends and Growth Cycles," NBER Working Papers 8736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Stephen G. Hall & Nicholas G. Zonzilos, 2003. "An Indicator Measuring Underlying Economic Activity in Greece," Working Papers 04, Bank of Greece.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling & Abu Mansor, Shazali & Puah, Chin-Hong & Liew, Venus Khim-Sen, 2012. "Forecasting malaysian business cycle movement: empirical evidence from composite leading indicator," MPRA Paper 36649, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling & Puah, Chin-Hong & Abu Mansor, Shazali & Liew, Venus Khim-Sen, 2012. "Early warning indicator of economic vulnerability," MPRA Paper 39944, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aic:journl:y:2008:v:55:p:363-370. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sireteanu Napoleon-Alexandru).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.