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Abstract

This paper examines two interrelated issues in commodity markets, namely, the cyclical relationship between stocks and commodities and the function of commodity and agribusiness indexes in portfolios. A high negative correlation has existed between stock and commodity prices over the past 140 years. Moreover, the two markets have alternated in price leadership with 29–32-year cycles. The recent price dominance in agricultural commodities started in 2000, a result supported by the empirical results of the portfolio allocation analysis. For a risk-averse investor, irrespective of the period analyzed, placing funds in agribusiness and/or agricultural commodity indexes was sound investing.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/130273
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Southern Agricultural Economics Association in its journal Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 44 (2012)
Issue (Month): 03 (August)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:ags:joaaec:130273

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Web page: http://www.saea.org/jaae/jaae.htm
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Related research

Keywords: agribusiness stocks; agricultural commodities; investment; portfolios; stock market indexes; Marketing; G10; G11; Q13;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

• G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
• G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
• Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness

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1. Thomas W. Hertel & Jayson Beckman, 2011. "Commodity Price Volatility in the Biofuel Era: An Examination of the Linkage between Energy and Agricultural Markets," NBER Chapters, in: The Intended and Unintended Effects of U.S. Agricultural and Biotechnology Policies, pages 189-221 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
   
   • Hertel, Thomas W. & Beckman, Jayson F., 2010. "Commodity Price Volatility in the Biofuel Era: An Examination of the Linkage between Energy and Agricultural Markets," 2010 Annual Meeting, July 25-27, 2010, Denver, Colorado 60857, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
   • Thomas W. Hertel & Jayson Beckman, 2011. "Commodity Price Volatility in the Biofuel Era: An Examination of the Linkage Between Energy and Agricultural Markets," NBER Working Papers 16824, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
   • Hertel, Thomas & Beckman, Jayson, 2010. "Commodity Price Volatility in the Biofuel Era: An Examination of the Linkage between Energy and Agricultural Markets," GTAP Working Papers 3214, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
2. Peng, Wei & Bosch, Darrell J., 2001. "Risk And Site Factors Affecting Potential Nitrogen Delivery In The Virginia Coastal Plain," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 33(01), April.
3. Adrian Pagan & Don Harding, 2005. "A suggested framework for classifying the modes of cycle research," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 151-159.

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