IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ijb/journl/v16y2017i1p1-19.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Return Predictability in Australian Managed Funds

Author

Listed:
  • Luo Wang

    (Griffith Business School, Griffith University, Australia)

  • Bin Li

    (Griffith Business School, Griffith University, Australia)

  • Rakesh Gupta

    (Griffith Business School, Griffith University, Australia)

  • Jen-Je Su

    (Griffith Business School, Griffith University, Australia)

  • Benjamin Liu

    (Griffith Business School, Griffith University, Australia)

Abstract

We examine return predictability of Australian managed funds in twenty-four categories by using twenty-nine macroeconomic indicators. The time-series regression results suggest that coal price, GDP, and Treasury bill rate have predictive power over fund returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Luo Wang & Bin Li & Rakesh Gupta & Jen-Je Su & Benjamin Liu, 2017. "Return Predictability in Australian Managed Funds," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 16(1), pages 1-19, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:ijb:journl:v:16:y:2017:i:1:p:1-19
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ijbe.fcu.edu.tw/assets/ijbe/past_issue/No.16-1/pdf/vol_16-1-1.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://ijbe.fcu.edu.tw/assets/ijbe/past_issue/No.16-1/abstract/01.html
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2010. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 217-229, May.
    2. Ippolito, Richard A, 1992. "Consumer Reaction to Measures of Poor Quality: Evidence from the Mutual Fund Industry," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(1), pages 45-70, April.
    3. Stephen A. Ross, 2013. "The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 1, pages 11-30, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2007. "Stock Return Predictability: Is it There?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(3), pages 651-707.
    5. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    6. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1981. "Flexible Exchange Rates, Prices, and the Role of "News": Lessons from the 1970s," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(4), pages 665-705, August.
    7. Brown, Stephen J & Goetzmann, William N, 1995. "Performance Persistence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 679-698, June.
    8. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-565, September.
    9. Grinblatt, Mark & Titman, Sheridan, 1992. "The Persistence of Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1977-1984, December.
    10. Lutz Kilian & Cheolbeom Park, 2009. "The Impact Of Oil Price Shocks On The U.S. Stock Market," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1267-1287, November.
    11. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
    12. Chu, Patrick Kuok-Kun, 2011. "Relationship between macroeconomic variables and net asset values (NAV) of equity funds: Cointegration evidence and vector error correction model of the Hong Kong Mandatory Provident Funds (MPFs)," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 792-810.
    13. M. Zahid Hasan & Ronald A. Ratti, 2014. "Australian Coal Company Risk Factors: Coal and Oil Prices," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 8(1), pages 57-67.
    14. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    15. Erik R. Sirri & Peter Tufano, 1998. "Costly Search and Mutual Fund Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(5), pages 1589-1622, October.
    16. Zapata, Hector O. & Detre, Joshua D. & Hanabuchi, Tatsuya, 2012. "Historical Performance of Commodity and Stock Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(3), pages 339-357, August.
    17. Ron Bird & Helen Chin & Michael McCrae, 1983. "The Performance of Australian Superannuation Funds," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 8(1), pages 49-69, June.
    18. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
    19. William Droms & David Walker, 2001. "Persistence of mutual fund operating characteristics: returns, turnover rates, and expense ratios," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 457-466.
    20. Tarun K. Mukherjee & Atsuyuki Naka, 1995. "Dynamic Relations Between Macroeconomic Variables And The Japanese Stock Market: An Application Of A Vector Error Correction Model," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 18(2), pages 223-237, June.
    21. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
    22. Chris Bilson & Angela Frino & Richard Heaney, 2005. "Australian retail fund performance persistence," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 45(1), pages 25-42, March.
    23. Julia Sawicki & Frank Finn, 2002. "Smart Money and Small Funds," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(5‐6), pages 825-846.
    24. Schwert, G William, 1990. "Stock Returns and Real Activity: A Century of Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1237-1257, September.
    25. Ferson, Wayne E & Schadt, Rudi W, 1996. "Measuring Fund Strategy and Performance in Changing Economic Conditions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 425-461, June.
    26. Gharghori, Philip & Mudumba, Shifali & Veeraraghavan, Madhu, 2007. "How smart is money? An investigation into investor behaviour in the Australian managed fund industry," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 494-513, November.
    27. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    28. Hodrick, Robert J, 1992. "Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Inference and Measurement," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 357-386.
    29. Jank, Stephan, 2012. "Mutual fund flows, expected returns, and the real economy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 3060-3070.
    30. Asprem, Mads, 1989. "Stock prices, asset portfolios and macroeconomic variables in ten European countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 589-612, September.
    31. Julia Sawicki & Frank Finn, 2002. "Smart Money and Small Funds," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(5&6), pages 825-846.
    32. Fama, Eugene F, 1990. "Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1089-1108, September.
    33. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    34. Angela Frino & Richard Heaney & David Service, 2005. "Do Past Performance and Past Cash Flows Explain Current Cash Flows into Retail Superannuation Funds in Australia?," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 30(2), pages 229-244, December.
    35. Luo Wang & Bin Li & Benjamin Liu, 2017. "Can Macroeconomic Variables Explain Managed Fund Returns? The Australian Case," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 36(2), pages 171-184, June.
    36. Brown, Stephen J, et al, 1992. "Survivorship Bias in Performance Studies," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 553-580.
    37. Rakesh Gupta & Thadavillil Jithendranathan, 2012. "Fund flows and past performance in Australian managed funds," Accounting Research Journal, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 25(2), pages 131-157, September.
    38. Mukherjee, Tarun K & Naka, Atsuyuki, 1995. "Dynamic Relations between Macroeconomic Variables and the Japanese Stock Market: An Application of a Vector Error Correction Model," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 18(2), pages 223-237, Summer.
    39. Hendricks, Darryll & Patel, Jayendu & Zeckhauser, Richard, 1993. "Hot Hands in Mutual Funds: Short-Run Persistence of Relative Performance, 1974-1988," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 93-130, March.
    40. Julia Sawicki, 2000. "Investors' Response to the Performance of Professional Fund Managers: Evidence from the Australian Wholesale Funds Market," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 25(1), pages 47-66, June.
    41. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1993. "The Risk and Predictability of International Equity Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 527-566.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vakilifard, Negar & A. Bahri, Parisa & Anda, Martin & Ho, Goen, 2019. "An interactive planning model for sustainable urban water and energy supply," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 332-345.
    2. Hector O. Zapata & Junior E. Betanco & Maria Bampasidou & Michael Deliberto, 2023. "A Cyclical Phenomenon among Stock & Commodity Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-13, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Luo Wang & Bin Li & Benjamin Liu, 2017. "Can Macroeconomic Variables Explain Managed Fund Returns? The Australian Case," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 36(2), pages 171-184, June.
    2. Qureshi, Fiza & Khan, Habib Hussain & Rehman, Ijaz Ur & Ghafoor, Abdul & Qureshi, Saba, 2019. "Mutual fund flows and investors’ expectations in BRICS economies: Implications for international diversification," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 130-150.
    3. Bhuiyan, Erfan M. & Chowdhury, Murshed, 2020. "Macroeconomic variables and stock market indices: Asymmetric dynamics in the US and Canada," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 62-74.
    4. Elton, Edwin J. & Gruber, Martin J., 2013. "Mutual Funds," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1011-1061, Elsevier.
    5. Fletcher, Jonathan & Forbes, David, 2002. "An exploration of the persistence of UK unit trust performance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(5), pages 475-493, December.
    6. Hung, Pi-Hsia & Lien, Donald & Kuo, Ming-Sin, 2020. "Window dressing in equity mutual funds," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 338-354.
    7. Victor Soucik & David E. Allen, 2006. "Benchmarking Australian fixed interest fund performance: finding the optimal factors," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 46(5), pages 865-898, December.
    8. Luis Vicente & Luis Ferruz, 2005. "Performance persistence in Spanish equity funds," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(18), pages 1305-1313.
    9. Andreas Humpe & Peter Macmillan, 2007. "Can macroeconomic variables explain long term stock market movements? A comparison of the US and Japan," CDMA Working Paper Series 200720, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    10. Chris Bilson & Angela Frino & Richard Heaney, 2005. "Australian retail fund performance persistence," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 45(1), pages 25-42, March.
    11. Christopherson, Jon A & Ferson, Wayne E & Glassman, Debra A, 1998. "Conditioning Manager Alphas on Economic Information: Another Look at the Persistence of Performance," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(1), pages 111-142.
    12. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E. & Rangvid, Jesper, 2005. "Macro variables and international stock return predictability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 137-166.
    13. Bali, Turan G. & Brown, Stephen J. & Caglayan, Mustafa Onur, 2011. "Do hedge funds' exposures to risk factors predict their future returns?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 36-68, July.
    14. Stefano Gubellini, 2014. "Conditioning information and cross-sectional anomalies," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 529-569, October.
    15. Ying-Fen Fu, 2014. "Individual Fund Manager Sentiment, Fund Performance and Performance Persistence," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(4), pages 870-885.
    16. Jank, Stephan, 2012. "Mutual fund flows, expected returns, and the real economy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 3060-3070.
    17. Dong‐Hyun Ahn & H. Henry Cao & Stéphane Chrétien, 2009. "Portfolio Performance Measurement: a No Arbitrage Bounds Approach," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 15(2), pages 298-339, March.
    18. Mark J. Flannery & Aris A. Protopapadakis, 2002. "Macroeconomic Factors Do Influence Aggregate Stock Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 751-782.
    19. Cooper, Michael J. & Gubellini, Stefano, 2011. "The critical role of conditioning information in determining if value is really riskier than growth," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 289-305, March.
    20. Dariusz Filip, 2011. "Performance Persistence of Equity Funds in Hungary," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 5(1), March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    managed fund; return predictability; Australian market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ijb:journl:v:16:y:2017:i:1:p:1-19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Szu-Hsien Ho (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbfcutw.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.