Evaluating the USDA’s Net Farm Income Forecast
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.276505
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Stark, Tom & Croushore, Dean, 2002.
"Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists,"
Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 507-531, December.
- Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2001. "Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists," Working Papers 01-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Tom Stark and Dean Croushore, 2001. "Forecasting with a Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 258, Society for Computational Economics.
- Jacob A. Mincer & Victor Zarnowitz, 1969. "The Evaluation of Economic Forecasts," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, pages 3-46, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Messina, Jeffrey D. & Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, Herman, 2015.
"What can we learn from revisions to the Greenbook forecasts?,"
Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 54-62.
- Jeff Messina & Tara M. Sinclair & Herman O. Stekler, 2014. "What Can We Learn From Revisions To The Greenbook Forecasts?," Working Papers 2014-003, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
- Tara M. Sinclair & Jeff Messina & Herman Stekler, 2014. "What Can We Learn From Revisions to the Greenbook Forecasts?," Working Papers 2014-14, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
- Holden, K & Peel, D A, 1990. "On Testing for Unbiasedness and Efficiency of Forecasts," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 58(2), pages 120-127, June.
- Bailey, DeeVon & Brorsen, B. Wade, 1998. "Trends In The Accuracy Of Usda Production Forecasts For Beef And Pork," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 23(2), pages 1-11, December.
- Croushore, Dean & Stark, Tom, 2001.
"A real-time data set for macroeconomists,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 111-130, November.
- Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Working Papers 99-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Olga Isengildina & Scott H. Irwin & Darrel L. Good, 2006.
"Are Revisions to USDA Crop Production Forecasts Smoothed?,"
American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(4), pages 1091-1104.
- Isengildina, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2004. "Are Revisions To Usda Crop Production Forecasts Smoothed?," 2004 Conference, April 19-20, 2004, St. Louis, Missouri 19027, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
- H. Bakhshi & G. Kapetanios & T. Yates, 2005.
"Rational expectations and fixed-event forecasts: An application to UK inflation,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 539-553, October.
- Hasan Bakhshi & George Kapetanios & Anthony Yates, 2003. "Rational expectations and fixed-event forecasts: an application to UK inflation," Bank of England working papers 176, Bank of England.
- Lucier, Gary & Chesley, Agnes & Ahearn, Mary Clare, 1986. "Farm Income Data: A Historical Perspective," Statistical Bulletin 154593, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
- Jinzhi Xiao & Chad E. Hart & Sergio H. Lence, 2017.
"USDA Forecasts Of Crop Ending Stocks: How Well Have They Performed?,"
Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 39(2), pages 220-241.
- Xiao, Jinzhi & Hart, Chad E. & Lence, Sergio H, 2017. "USDA Forecasts Of Crop Ending Stocks: How Well Have They Performed?," ISU General Staff Papers 201704070700001580, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2002. "Usda Production Forecasts For Pork, Beef, And Broilers: An Evaluation," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 27(1), pages 1-14, July.
- repec:ags:jrapmc:122314 is not listed on IDEAS
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Siddhartha S. Bora & Ani L. Katchova & Todd H. Kuethe, 2021. "The Rationality of USDA Forecasts under Multivariate Asymmetric Loss," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(3), pages 1006-1033, May.
- Dovern, Jonas & Jannsen, Nils, 2017.
"Systematic errors in growth expectations over the business cycle,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 760-769.
- Dovern, Jonas & Jannsen, Nils, 2015. "Systematic errors in growth expectations over the business cycle," Kiel Working Papers 1989, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
- Olga Isengildina‐Massa & Berna Karali & Todd H. Kuethe & Ani L. Katchova, 2021. "Joint Evaluation of the System of USDA's Farm Income Forecasts," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(3), pages 1140-1160, September.
- MacDonald, Stephen & Ash, Mark & Cooke, Bryce, 2017. "The Evolution of Inefficiency in USDA’s Forecasts of U.S. and World Soybean Markets," MPRA Paper 87545, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Tianyang Zhang & Ziran Li, 2022. "Can a rational expectation storage model explain the USDA ending grain stocks forecast errors?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 313-337, March.
- Dwight R. Sanders & Mark R. Manfredo, 2008.
"Multiple horizons and information in USDA production forecasts,"
Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 55-66.
- Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2006. "Multiple Horizons and Information in USDA Production Forecasts," 2006 Conference, April 17-18, 2006, St. Louis, Missouri 18997, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
- Michael P. Clements, 2014.
"US Inflation Expectations and Heterogeneous Loss Functions, 1968–2010,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 1-14, January.
- Clements, Michael P., 2012. "US inflation expectations and heterogeneous loss functions, 1968–2010," Economic Research Papers 270653, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
- Clements, Michael P., 2012. "US inflation expectations and heterogeneous loss functions, 1968–2010," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 986, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Sinclair, Tara M., 2019.
"Characteristics and implications of Chinese macroeconomic data revisions,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1108-1117.
- Tara M. Sinclair, 2012. "Characteristics and Implications of Chinese Macroeconomic Data Revisions," Working Papers 2012-09, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
- Fred Joutz & Michael P. Clements & Herman O. Stekler, 2007. "An evaluation of the forecasts of the federal reserve: a pooled approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 121-136.
- Rossi, Barbara, 2013.
"Advances in Forecasting under Instability,"
Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1203-1324,
Elsevier.
- Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Advances in Forecasting Under Instability," Working Papers 11-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, H.O., 2013.
"Examining the quality of early GDP component estimates,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 736-750.
- Tara M. Sinclair & H.O. Stekler, 2011. "Examining the Quality of Early GDP Component Estimates," Working Papers 2011-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting, revised Dec 2011.
- Bahram Sanginabadi, 2018. "USDA Forecasts: A meta-analysis study," Papers 1801.06575, arXiv.org.
- Marc-Oliver Pohle, 2020. "The Murphy Decomposition and the Calibration-Resolution Principle: A New Perspective on Forecast Evaluation," Papers 2005.01835, arXiv.org.
- Taylor, Christopher W., 2012. "Market Reactions to USDA Reports: State Analysis of Corn Price Response," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124661, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
- Barbara Rossi, 2019.
"Forecasting in the presence of instabilities: How do we know whether models predict well and how to improve them,"
Economics Working Papers
1711, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2021.
- Barbara Rossi, 2019. "Forecasting in the Presence of Instabilities: How Do We Know Whether Models Predict Well and How to Improve Them," Working Papers 1162, Barcelona School of Economics.
- Rossi, Barbara, 2020. "Forecasting in the Presence of Instabilities: How Do We Know Whether Models Predict Well and How to Improve Them," CEPR Discussion Papers 14472, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- repec:dgr:rugsom:12010-eef is not listed on IDEAS
- Wang, Yiyao & Lee, Tae-Hwy, 2014.
"Asymmetric loss in the Greenbook and the Survey of Professional Forecasters,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 235-245.
- Tae-Hwy Lee & Yiyao Wang, 2014. "Asymmetric Loss in the Greenbook and the Survey of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 201407, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
- Andrew Patton & Allan Timmermann, 2012.
"Forecast Rationality Tests Based on Multi-Horizon Bounds,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 1-17.
- Andrew J. Patton & Allan Timmermann, 2011. "Forecast Rationality Tests Based on Multi-Horizon Bounds," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 1-17, June.
- Timmermann, Allan & Patton, Andrew, 2011. "Forecast Rationality Tests Based on Multi-Horizon Bounds," CEPR Discussion Papers 8194, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Paul Hubert, 2015.
"Revisiting the Greenbook’s relative forecasting performance,"
Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 151-179.
- Paul Hubert, 2009. "An Empirical Review of Federal Reserve’s Informational Advantage," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2009-03, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
- Paul Hubert, 2015. "Revisiting the greenbook's relative forecasting performance," Post-Print hal-01087522, HAL.
- Paul Hubert, 2015. "Revisiting the greenbook's relative forecasting performance," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01087522, HAL.
- Paul Hubert, 2015. "Revisiting the greenbook's relative forecasting performance," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/35kgubh40v9, Sciences Po.
- repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
- repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/35kgubh40v9gfpnuruelqjnptb is not listed on IDEAS
- Richard Jong-A-Pin & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Jakob de Haan & Jakob de Haan, 2012.
"Using Real-Time Data to Test for Political Budget Cycles,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
3939, CESifo.
- Jong-A-Pin, Richard & Sturm, Jan-Egbert & Haan, Jakob de, 2012. "Using real-time data to test for political budget cycles," Research Report 12010-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
- Jan-Egbert Sturm & Richard Jong-A-Pin & Jakob de Haan, 2012. "Using Real-Time Data to Test for Political Budget Cycles," KOF Working papers 12-313, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Tara M. Sinclair & H.O. Stekler, 2011. "Differences in Early GDP Component Estimates Between Recession and Expansion," Working Papers 2011-05, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
More about this item
Keywords
Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance;Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:276505. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/waeaaea.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.