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Targeting Drought-Tolerant Maize Varieties in Southern Africa: A Geospatial Crop Modeling Approach Using Big Data

Author

Listed:
  • Tesfaye, Kindie
  • Sonder, Kai
  • Cairns, Jill
  • Magorokosho, Cosmos
  • Tarekegn, Amsal
  • Kassie, Girma T.
  • Getaneh, Fite
  • Abdoulaye, Tahirou
  • Abate, Tsedeke
  • Erenstein, Olaf

Abstract

Maize is a major staple food crop in southern Africa and stress tolerant improved varieties have the potential to increase productivity, enhance livelihoods and reduce food insecurity. This study uses big data in refining the geospatial targeting of new drought-tolerant (DT) maize varieties in Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Results indicate that more than 1.0 million hectares (Mha) of maize in the study countries is exposed to a seasonal drought frequency exceeding 20% while an additional 1.6 Mha experience a drought occurrence of 10–20%. Spatial modeling indicates that new DT varieties could give a yield advantage of 5–40% over the commercial check variety across drought environments while crop management and input costs are kept equal. Results indicate a huge potential for DT maize seed production and marketing in the study countries. The study demonstrates how big data and analytical tools enhance the targeting and uptake of new agricultural technologies for boosting rural livelihoods, agribusiness development and food security in developing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Tesfaye, Kindie & Sonder, Kai & Cairns, Jill & Magorokosho, Cosmos & Tarekegn, Amsal & Kassie, Girma T. & Getaneh, Fite & Abdoulaye, Tahirou & Abate, Tsedeke & Erenstein, Olaf, 2016. "Targeting Drought-Tolerant Maize Varieties in Southern Africa: A Geospatial Crop Modeling Approach Using Big Data," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 19(A), pages 1-18.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ifaamr:240697
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.240697
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tsedeke Abate & Bekele Shiferaw & Abebe Menkir & Dagne Wegary & Yilma Kebede & Kindie Tesfaye & Menale Kassie & Gezahegn Bogale & Berhanu Tadesse & Tolera Keno, 2015. "Factors that transformed maize productivity in Ethiopia," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 7(5), pages 965-981, October.
    2. Banziger, Marianne & Setimela, Peter S. & Hodson, David & Vivek, Bindiganavile, 2006. "Breeding for improved abiotic stress tolerance in maize adapted to southern Africa," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 80(1-3), pages 212-224, February.
    3. Lang, Corey & Barrett, Christopher B. & Naschold, Felix, 2013. "Targeting Maps: An Asset-Based Approach to Geographic Targeting," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 232-244.
    4. Langyintuo, Augustine S. & Mwangi, Wilfred & Diallo, Alpha O. & MacRobert, John F. & Dixon, John & Banziger, Marianne, 2008. "An analysis of the bottlenecks affecting the production and deployment of maize seed in Eastern and Southern Africa," Economics Program Papers 56189, CIMMYT: International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center.
    5. Bezu, Sosina & Kassie, Girma T. & Shiferaw, Bekele & Ricker-Gilbert, Jacob, 2014. "Impact of Improved Maize Adoption on Welfare of Farm Households in Malawi: A Panel Data Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 120-131.
    6. Monica Fisher & Tsedeke Abate & Rodney Lunduka & Woinishet Asnake & Yoseph Alemayehu & Ruth Madulu, 2015. "Drought tolerant maize for farmer adaptation to drought in sub-Saharan Africa: Determinants of adoption in eastern and southern Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(2), pages 283-299, November.
    7. Girma T Kassie & Augustine Langyintuo & Olaf Erenstein & Debrah Maleni & Simon Gwara & Tsedeke Abate, 2013. "Drought Risk and Maize Production in Southern Africa," Journal of Asian Scientific Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(10), pages 956-973.
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    1. Samson P. Katengeza & Stein T. Holden, 2021. "Productivity impact of drought tolerant maize varieties under rainfall stress in Malawi: A continuous treatment approach," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(1), pages 157-171, January.
    2. Patrick L. Hatzenbuehler & George Mavrotas, 2021. "Combining household and price data to target food marketing interventions in Nigeria," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 13(2), pages 493-505, April.
    3. Mansaray, B. & Jin, S. & Yuan, R. & Li, H., 2018. "Farmers Preferences for Attributes of Seed Rice in Sierra Leone: A Best-Worst Scaling Approach," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277552, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

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