IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/agr/journl/v3(616)y2018i3(616)p25-48.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Macroeconomic determinants of the labour share of income: Evidence from OECD economies

Author

Listed:
  • Ivan D. TROFIMOV

    (Kolej Yayasan Saad (KYS) Business School, Malaysia)

  • Nazaria Md. ARIS

    (University of Malaysia, Sarawak, Malaysia)

  • Muhammad Khairil Firdaus Bin ROSLI

    (University of Malaysia, Sarawak, Malaysia)

Abstract

The study investigates the relationships between the labour share of income and several macroeconomic variables – the GDP growth, inflation, unemployment, as well as GDP gap and capacity utilization – in industrialised economies between 1960 and the 2010s. Three complementary hypotheses that relate macroeconomic determinants to the labour share dynamics are considered: 'overhead labour' hypothesis, 'realization theory/wage lag' hypothesis and the 'rising strength of labour' hypothesis. The study employs a sequential procedure: testing for the stationarity properties of the variables, using bounds test to identify the presence of cointegrating relationships, and estimating long-run relationships using ARDL or OLS methods. The results show that all three hypotheses are supported only in a limited number of economies, whilst in the majority of cases only certain relationships are prominent. On the whole, the GDP growth rate, the unemployment rate, and to a smaller extent capacity are found to be the principal determinants of the labour share, while change in the level of prices is of subsidiary importance.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivan D. TROFIMOV & Nazaria Md. ARIS & Muhammad Khairil Firdaus Bin ROSLI, 2018. "Macroeconomic determinants of the labour share of income: Evidence from OECD economies," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(3(616), A), pages 25-48, Autumn.
    • Handle: RePEc:agr:journl:v:3(616):y:2018:i:3(616):p:25-48
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://store.ectap.ro/articole/1344.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.ectap.ro/articol.php?id=1344&rid=132
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fay, Jon A & Medoff, James L, 1985. "Labor and Output over the Business Cycle: Some Direct Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 638-655, September.
    2. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    3. Lawless, Martina & Whelan, Karl T., 2011. "Understanding the dynamics of labor shares and inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 121-136, June.
    4. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Hammour, Mohamad L., 1998. "Jobless growth: appropriability, factor substitution, and unemployment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 51-94, June.
    5. Pesaran, M Hashem, 1997. "The Role of Economic Theory in Modelling the Long Run," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 178-191, January.
    6. Andrea Bassanini & Romain Duval, 2006. "Employment Patterns in OECD Countries: Reassessing the Role of Policies and Institutions," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 486, OECD Publishing.
    7. Kremers, Jeroen J M & Ericsson, Neil R & Dolado, Juan J, 1992. "The Power of Cointegration Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 325-348, August.
    8. Diego Comin & Mark Gertler, 2006. "Medium-Term Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 523-551, June.
    9. Ben S. Bernanke & James Powell, 1986. "The Cyclical Behavior of Industrial Labor Markets: A Comparison of the Prewar and Postwar Eras," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 583-638, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Daron Acemoglu, 2003. "Labor- And Capital-Augmenting Technical Change," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(1), pages 1-37, March.
    11. Arjun Jayadev, 2007. "Capital account openness and the labour share of income," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 31(3), pages 423-443, May.
    12. Robert Z. Lawrence, 2015. "Recent Declines in Labor's Share in US Income: A Preliminary Neoclassical Account," Working Paper Series WP15-10, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    13. Feldstein, Martin, 2008. "Did wages reflect growth in productivity?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 591-594.
    14. A. B. Atkinson, 2009. "Factor shares: the principal problem of political economy?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 25(1), pages 3-16, Spring.
    15. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    16. Alain Serres & Stefano Scarpetta & Christine Maisonneuve, 2001. "Falling Wage Shares in Europe and the United States: How Important is Aggregation Bias?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 28(4), pages 375-401, December.
    17. Ryan, Paul, 1996. "Factor Shares and Inequality in the UK," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 12(1), pages 106-126, Spring.
    18. Weisskopf, Thomas E, 1979. "Marxian Crisis Theory and the Rate of Profit in the Postwar U.S. Economy," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 3(4), pages 341-378, December.
    19. Robin Hahnel & Howard J. Sherman, 1982. "Income Distribution and the Business Cycle: Three Conflicting Hypotheses," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 49-73, March.
    20. Alexei Izyumov & John Vahaly, 2014. "Recent trends in factor income shares: a global perspective," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 41(5), pages 696-707, September.
    21. Samuel Bowles and Robert Boyer., 1988. "Labor Discipline and Aggregate Demand: A Macroeconomic Model," Economics Working Papers 8875, University of California at Berkeley.
    22. Hagen M. Krämer, 2011. "Bowley’S Law: The Diffusion Of An Empirical Supposition Into Economic Theory," Cahiers d’économie politique / Papers in Political Economy, L'Harmattan, issue 61, pages 19-50.
    23. F. A. Lutz, 1961. "The Theory of Capital," International Economic Association Series, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-08452-4 edited by D. C. Hague, December.
    24. Schmidt, Torsten & Vosen, Simeon, 2013. "Demographic change and the labour share of income," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 357-378.
    25. Olivier Blanchard, 2006. "European unemployment: the evolution of facts and ideas [‘The macroeconomics of low inflation’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 21(45), pages 6-59.
    26. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    27. Metwally, M.M., 1986. "A Note on the Determinants of the Cost Structure of Gross Domestic Product: A Cross Country Analysis," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 137-144.
    28. Bowles, Samuel & Boyer, Robert, 1988. "Labor Discipline and Aggregate Demand: A Macroeconomic Model," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt8sb2623g, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    29. Alexei Izyumov & John Vahaly, 2014. "Recent trends in factor income shares: a global perspective," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 41(5), pages 696 - 707.
    30. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    31. Bennet Berger & Guntram B. Wolff, 2017. "The global decline in the labour income share- is capital the answer to Germany’s current account surplus?," Policy Contributions 20285, Bruegel.
    32. Bowles, Samuel & Boyer, Robert, 1988. "Labor Discipline and Aggregate Demand: A Macroeconomic Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 395-400, May.
    33. Macri, Joseph & Sinha, Dipendra, 1999. "An Empirical Study of Labour’s Share in Income for Australia," MPRA Paper 4018, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    34. Jonathan P. Goldstein, 1996. "The Empirical Relevance of the Cyclical Profit Squeeze: A Reassertion," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 28(4), pages 55-92, December.
    35. Andrea Vaona, 2011. "An empirical investigation into the gravitation and convergence of industry return rates in OECD countries," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 465-502.
    36. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & A. B. M. Nasir, 2004. "ARDL Approach to Test the Productivity Bias Hypothesis," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 483-488, August.
    37. Raford Boddy & James Crotty, 1975. "Class Conflict and Macro-Policy: The Political Business Cycle," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-19, April.
    38. Robert A. Amano & Simon van Norden, 1995. "Unit Root Tests and the Burden of Proof," Econometrics 9502005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    39. Nicholas Kaldor, 1961. "Capital Accumulation and Economic Growth," International Economic Association Series, in: D. C. Hague (ed.), The Theory of Capital, chapter 0, pages 177-222, Palgrave Macmillan.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Trofimov, Ivan D. & Md. Aris, Nazaria & Bin Rosli, Muhammad K. F., 2018. "Macroeconomic Determinants of the Labour Share of Income: Evidence from OECD Economies," MPRA Paper 85597, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Trofimov, Ivan D., 2022. "Determinants of the profit rates in the OECD economies: A panel data analysis of the Kalecki's profit equation," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 380-397.
    3. repec:pra:mprapa:43050 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Marashdeh, Hazem, 2005. "Stock Market Integration in the MENA Region: An Application of the ARDL Bounds Testing Approach," Economics Working Papers wp05-27, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    5. Mirella Damiani & Fabrizio Pompei & Andrea Ricci, 2012. "Labour Shares and Employment Protection in European Economies," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 111/2012, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia.
    6. Ivan D. Trofimov, 2019. "Stability of Labour Shares: Evidence from OECD Economies," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 17(1), pages 57-89.
    7. Luciano BOGGIO & Vincenzo DALL’AGLIO & Marco MAGNANI, 2010. "On Labour Shares in Recent Decades: A Survey," Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Sociali, Vita e Pensiero, Pubblicazioni dell'Universita' Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, vol. 118(3), pages 283-333.
    8. Muhammad Shafiullah & Ravinthirakumaran Navaratnam, 2016. "Do Bangladesh and Sri Lanka Enjoy Export-Led Growth? A Comparison of Two Small South Asian Economies," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 17(1), pages 114-132, March.
    9. Brittle, Shane, 2009. "Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Economics Working Papers wp09-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    10. Ketenci, Natalya, 2009. "The ARDL Approach to Cointegration Analysis of Tourism Demand in Turkey: with Greece as the substitution destination," MPRA Paper 86602, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Ozturk, Ilhan & Acaravci, Ali, 2010. "The causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP in Albania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania: Evidence from ARDL bound testing approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(6), pages 1938-1943, June.
    12. Barnett, William A. & Ghosh, Taniya & Adil, Masudul Hasan, 2022. "Is money demand really unstable? Evidence from Divisia monetary aggregates," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 606-622.
    13. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-380 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Boutabba, Mohamed Amine, 2014. "The impact of financial development, income, energy and trade on carbon emissions: Evidence from the Indian economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 33-41.
    15. Phouphet Kyophilavong & Gazi Salah Uddin & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2016. "The Nexus between Financial Development and Economic Growth in Lao PDR," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 17(2), pages 303-317, April.
    16. Tuck Cheong Tang, 2008. "Money demand function for Southeast Asian countries," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 34(6), pages 476-496, January.
    17. Beqiraj, Elton & Fanti, Lucrezia & Zamparelli, Luca, 2019. "Sectoral composition of output and the wage share: The role of the service sector," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-10.
    18. Muhammad Arshad & Faisal Abbas & Harald Kächele & Yasir Mehmood & Nasir Mahmood & Klaus Mueller, 2022. "Analyzing the Impact of Government Social Spending, Population Growth and Foreign Remittances on Human Development in Pakistan: Implications for Policy," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 34(3), pages 1607-1626, June.
    19. Barbara Dluhosch, 2011. "European Economics at a Crossroads, by J. Barkley Rosser, Jr., Richard P. F. Holt, and David Colander," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(3), pages 629-631, August.
    20. Alexiou, Constantinos, 2022. "Evaluating the falling rate of profit in the context of the UK economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 84-94.
    21. B. T. Ewing & M. J. Piette & J. E. Payne, 2004. "Correction," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 71(3), pages 557-557, September.
    22. Phouphet KYOPHILAVONG & Gazi Salah Uddin & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2014. "The Nexus Between Financial Development and Economic Growth in Laos," Working Papers 2014-447, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:agr:journl:v:3(616):y:2018:i:3(616):p:25-48. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marin Dinu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/agerrea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.