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The Cyclical Behavior of Industrial Labor Markets: A Comparison of the Pre-War and Post-War Eras

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Ben S. Bernanke
James L. Powell

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Abstract

This paper studies the cyclical behavior of a number of industrial labor markets of the pre-war (1923-1939) and post-war (1954-1982) eras. In the spirit of Burns and Mitchell we do not test a specific structural model of the labor market but instead concentrate on describing the qualitative features of the (monthly, industry-level) data.The two principal questions we ask are: First, how is labor input (as measured by the number of workers, the hours of work, and the intensity of utilization) varied over the cycle ? Second, what is the cyclical behaviorof labor compensation (as measured by real wages, product wages, and real weekly earnings) ? We study these questions in both the frequency domain and the time domain. Many of our findings simply reinforce, or perhaps refine, existing perceptions of cyclical labor market behavior. However, we do find some interesting differences between the pre-war and the post-war periods in ther elative use of layoffs and short hours in downturns, and in the cyclical behavior of the real wage.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1376.

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Date of creation: Jun 1984
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1376

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  1. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1970. "Capacity, Overtime, and Empirical Production Functions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(2), pages 23-27, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Morrison, C. J. & Berndt, E. R., 1981. "Short-run labor productivity in a dynamic model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 339-365, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Rosen, Sherwin & Nadiri, M Ishaq, 1974. "A Disequilibrium Model of Demand for Factors of Production," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(2), pages 264-70, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Lawrence F. Katz, 1986. "Efficiency Wage Theories: A Partial Evaluation," NBER Working Papers 1906, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Gadi Barlevy & Daniel Tsiddon, 2004. "Earnings inequality and the business cycle," Working Paper Series WP-04-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Kevin X.D. Huang & Zheng Liu & Louis Phaneuf, 2003. "Why Does the Cyclical Behavior of Real Wages Change Over Time?," Emory Economics 0309, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta). [Downloadable!]
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  4. Victor Zarnowitz, 1989. "Cost and Price Movements in Business Cycle Theories and Experience: Hypotheses of Sticky Wages and Prices (SEE ALSO WP3132-send out together)," NBER Working Papers 3131, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Michael D. Bordo & Charles L. Evans, 1995. "Labor Productivity During the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 4415, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Gunnar BÄrdsen & Jurgen Doornik & Jan Tore Klovland, 2000. "A Wage Curve for the Interwar Labour Market: Evidence from a Panel of Norwegian Manufacturing Industries," Working Paper Series 1802, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, revised 15 Apr 2001. [Downloadable!]
  7. Hart, Robert A., 2003. "General Human Capital and Employment Adjustment in the Great Depression: Apprentices and Journeymen in UK Engineering," IZA Discussion Papers 799, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  8. Robert A. Hart, 2006. "Piece Work Pay and Hourly Pay over the Cycle," IZA Discussion Papers 2210, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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