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The Costs of Stabilizing Global CO2 Emissions: A Probabilistic Analysis Based on Expert Judgments

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  • Alan S. Manne
  • Richard G. Richels

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the economic costs of stabilizing global CO2 emissions at 1990 levels. Previous analyses of the costs of emissions abatement have tended to be deterministic. That is, no attempt was made to assign probabilities to various scenarios. Policy-makers need information both on the range of possible outcomes and on their relative likelihood. We use a probability poll to characterize the uncertainty surrounding critical parameters and to construct probability distributions over the outcomes of interest. The analysis suggests a wide range for abatement costs. In order to stabilize global emissions, the annual price tag lies between a 2 and 6.8 percent of gross world product. This distribution is highly skewed. The expected costs are approximately 1.5 percent.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by International Association for Energy Economics in its journal The Energy Journal.

Volume (Year): Volume15 (1994)
Issue (Month): Number 1 ()
Pages: 31-56

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Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:1994v15-01-a03

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Cited by:
  1. Mort Webster, 2009. "Uncertainty and the IPCC. An editorial comment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 92(1), pages 37-40, January.
  2. Horne, Matt & Jaccard, Mark & Tiedemann, Ken, 2005. "Improving behavioral realism in hybrid energy-economy models using discrete choice studies of personal transportation decisions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 59-77, January.
  3. Hourcade, Jean-Charles & Chapuis, Thierry, 1995. "No-regret potentials and technical innovation : A viability approach to integrated assessment of climate policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4-5), pages 433-445.
  4. Yang, Yuan & Zhang, Junjie & Wang, Can, 2014. "Is China on Track to Comply with Its 2020 Copenhagen Carbon Intensity Commitment?," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt1r5251g8, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  5. Webster, Mort & Cho, Cheol-Hung, 2006. "Analysis of variability and correlation in long-term economic growth rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(5-6), pages 653-666, November.
  6. Mark K. Jaccard & John Nyboer & Crhis Bataille & Bryn Sadownik, 2003. "Modeling the Cost of Climate Policy: Distinguishing Between Alternative Cost Definitions and Long-Run Cost Dynamics," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 49-73.
  7. Mort Webster & Nidhi Santen & Panos Parpas, 2012. "An approximate dynamic programming framework for modeling global climate policy under decision-dependent uncertainty," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 339-362, August.
  8. Manne, Alan & Richels, Richard, 1996. "The Berlin Mandate: The costs of meeting post-2000 targets and timetables," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 205-210, March.

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