The Costs of Stabilizing Global CO2 Emissions: A Probabilistic Analysis Based on Expert Judgments
AbstractIn this paper, we examine the economic costs of stabilizing global CO2 emissions at 1990 levels. Previous analyses of the costs of emissions abatement have tended to be deterministic. That is, no attempt was made to assign probabilities to various scenarios. Policy-makers need information both on the range of possible outcomes and on their relative likelihood. We use a probability poll to characterize the uncertainty surrounding critical parameters and to construct probability distributions over the outcomes of interest. The analysis suggests a wide range for abatement costs. In order to stabilize global emissions, the annual price tag lies between a 2 and 6.8 percent of gross world product. This distribution is highly skewed. The expected costs are approximately 1.5 percent.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by International Association for Energy Economics in its journal The Energy Journal.
Volume (Year): Volume15 (1994)
Issue (Month): Number 1 ()
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F0 - International Economics - - General
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Manne, Alan & Richels, Richard, 1996. "The Berlin Mandate: The costs of meeting post-2000 targets and timetables," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 205-210, March.
- Webster, Mort & Cho, Cheol-Hung, 2006. "Analysis of variability and correlation in long-term economic growth rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(5-6), pages 653-666, November.
- Mort Webster & Nidhi Santen & Panos Parpas, 2012. "An approximate dynamic programming framework for modeling global climate policy under decision-dependent uncertainty," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 339-362, August.
- Hourcade, Jean-Charles & Chapuis, Thierry, 1995. "No-regret potentials and technical innovation : A viability approach to integrated assessment of climate policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4-5), pages 433-445.
- Mort Webster, 2009. "Uncertainty and the IPCC. An editorial comment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 92(1), pages 37-40, January.
- Horne, Matt & Jaccard, Mark & Tiedemann, Ken, 2005. "Improving behavioral realism in hybrid energy-economy models using discrete choice studies of personal transportation decisions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 59-77, January.
- Yang, Yuan & Zhang, Junjie & Wang, Can, 2014. "Is China on Track to Comply with Its 2020 Copenhagen Carbon Intensity Commitment?," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt1r5251g8, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Mark K. Jaccard & John Nyboer & Crhis Bataille & Bryn Sadownik, 2003. "Modeling the Cost of Climate Policy: Distinguishing Between Alternative Cost Definitions and Long-Run Cost Dynamics," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 49-73.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (David Williams).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.