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Distinguished Lecture on Economics in Government: The New Economy: Post Mortem or Second Wind?

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  • Martin Neil Baily
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    Abstract

    There was an acceleration of U.S. productivity after 1995. Investment in information technology hardware and software contributed importantly to this, but was not its sole cause. In part, heavy IT investment, perhaps overinvestment, was the result of the booming economy and cheap capital. Besides IT, the expansion of productive firms boosted productivity, together with the competitive pressure this put on other firms to innovate and improve. Productivity growth has been surprisingly strong in 2001, and the likely trend for the future is in the range of 2.2 to 2.7 percent a year. The economy should get a second wind.

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    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/0895330027184
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal Journal of Economic Perspectives.

    Volume (Year): 16 (2002)
    Issue (Month): 2 (Spring)
    Pages: 3-22

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    Handle: RePEc:aea:jecper:v:16:y:2002:i:2:p:3-22

    Note: DOI: 10.1257/0895330027184
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    1. John M. Roberts, 2001. "Estimates of the productivity trend using time-varying parameter techniques," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-08, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Martin Neil Baily, 2001. "Macroeconomic implications of the new economy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 201-268.
    3. Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "The New Econometrics of Structural Change: Dating Breaks in U.S. Labour Productivity," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 117-128, Fall.
    4. Laurence Ball & Robert Moffitt, 2001. "Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve," Economics Working Paper Archive 450, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    5. William D. Nordhaus, 2000. "Productivity Growth and the New Economy," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1284, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    6. Kevin J. Stiroh, 2002. "Information Technology and the U.S. Productivity Revival: What Do the Industry Data Say?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1559-1576, December.
    7. Robert E. Hall, 1999. "The Stock Market and Capital Accumulation," NBER Working Papers 7180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Dale W. Jorgenson & Mun S. Ho & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2002. "Projecting productivity growth: lessons from the U.S. growth resurgence," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q3, pages 1-13.
    9. Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2002. "Information technology and productivity: where are we now and where are we going?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Martin Neil Baily, 2001. "Macroeconomic Implications of the New Economy," Working Paper Series WP01-9, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
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    Cited by:
    1. Steven Pennings & Rod Tyers, 2007. "Increasing Returns, Financial Capital Mobility And Real Exchange Rate Dynamics," CAMA Working Papers 2007-16, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Bart van Ark & Robert Inklaar & Robert H. McGuckin, 2003. "The Contribution of ICT-Producing and ICT-Using Industries to Productivity Growth: A Comparison of Canada, Europe and the United States," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 6, pages 56-63, Spring.
    3. Richard Dion & Robert Fay, 2008. "Understanding Productivity: A Review of Recent Technical Research," Discussion Papers 08-3, Bank of Canada.
    4. Atanas Leonidov, 2003. "“The New Economy”," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 3-33.

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