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Anticipatory Anxiety and Wishful Thinking

Author

Listed:
  • Jan B. Engelmann
  • Maël Lebreton
  • Nahuel A. Salem-Garcia
  • Peter Schwardmann
  • Joël J. van der Weele

Abstract

Across five experiments (N = 1,714), we test whether people engage in wishful thinking to alleviate anxiety about adverse future outcomes. Participants perform pattern recognition tasks in which some patterns may result in an electric shock or a monetary loss. Diagnostic of wishful thinking, participants are less likely to correctly identify patterns that are associated with a shock or loss. Wishful thinking is more pronounced under more ambiguous signals and only reduced by higher accuracy incentives when participants' cognitive effort reduces ambiguity. Wishful thinking disappears in the domain of monetary gains, indicating that negative emotions are important drivers of the phenomenon.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan B. Engelmann & Maël Lebreton & Nahuel A. Salem-Garcia & Peter Schwardmann & Joël J. van der Weele, 2024. "Anticipatory Anxiety and Wishful Thinking," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(4), pages 926-960, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:114:y:2024:i:4:p:926-60
    DOI: 10.1257/aer.20191068
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dean Karlan & Matt Lowe & Robert Darko Osei & Isaac Osei-Akoto & Benjamin N. Roth & Christopher R. Udry, 2022. "Social Protection and Social Distancing During the Pandemic: Mobile Money Transfers in Ghana," NBER Working Papers 30309, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Grunewald, Andreas & Klockmann, Victor & von Schenk, Alicia & von Siemens, Ferdinand, 2024. "Are biases contagious? The influence of communication on motivated beliefs," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 109, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    3. Islam, Marco, 2021. "Motivated Risk Assessments," Working Papers 2021:12, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 26 Jul 2022.
    4. Schünemann, Johannes & Strulik, Holger & Trimborn, Timo, 2023. "Anticipation of deteriorating health and information avoidance," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    5. Felix Chopra & Ingar K. Haaland & Christopher Roth, 2019. "Do People Value More Informative News?," CESifo Working Paper Series 8026, CESifo.
    6. Luc Bridet & Peter Schwardmann, 2020. "Selling Dreams: Endogenous Optimism in Lending Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 8271, CESifo.
    7. Thomas Neuber, 2021. "Egocentric Norm Adoption," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 116, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    8. Roberta Dessi & Junjie Ren & Xiaojian Zhao, 2023. "Shame, Guilt, and Motivated Self-Confidence," Monash Economics Working Papers 2023-24, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    9. Victor Augias & Daniel M. A. Barreto, 2020. "Persuading a Wishful Thinker," Papers 2011.13846, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
    10. Le Yaouanq, Yves, 2023. "A model of voting with motivated beliefs," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 394-408.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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