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I'll See It When I Believe It - A Simple Model of Cognitive Consistency

Author

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  • Leeat Yariv

Abstract

Psychological experiments demonstrate that people exhibit a taste for consistency. Individuals are inclined to interpret new evidence in ways that confirm their pre-existing beliefs. They also tend to change their beliefs to enhance the desirability of their past actions. I present a model that incorporates these effects into an agent's utility function and allows me to characterize when: (i) agents become under- and over-confident, (ii) agents exhibit excess stickiness in action choices, (iii) agents prefer less accurate signals, and (iv) agents are willing to pay in order to forgo signals altogether. Applications to political campaigns and investment decisions are explored.

Suggested Citation

  • Leeat Yariv, 2002. "I'll See It When I Believe It - A Simple Model of Cognitive Consistency," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1352, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1352
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    File URL: https://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/d13/d1352.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gaffeo, E. & Petrella, I. & Pfajfar, D. & Santoro, E., 2010. "Reference-Dependent Preferences and the Transmission of Monetary Policy," Other publications TiSEM 23d33e54-e5c4-4ac3-b6c9-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. , G. & , & ,, 2008. "Non-Bayesian updating: A theoretical framework," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 3(2), June.
    3. Anat Bracha & Donald J Brown, 2007. "Affective Decision Making: a Behavioral Theory of Choice," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000001676, UCLA Department of Economics.
    4. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Jonathan A. Parker, 2005. "Optimal Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(4), pages 1092-1118, September.
    5. Anat Bracha & Donald J. Brown, 2008. "Affective Decision Making and the Ellsberg Paradox," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1667, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    6. Ashraf, Nava & Bandiera, Oriana & Lee, Scott S., 2014. "Awards unbundled: Evidence from a natural field experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 44-63.
    7. Mr. Bernhard Eckwert & Mr. Burkhard Drees, 2005. "Asset Mispricing Due to Cognitive Dissonance," IMF Working Papers 2005/009, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Ambroise Descamps & Sébastien Massoni & Lionel Page, 2022. "Learning to hesitate," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 25(1), pages 359-383, February.
    9. Riccardo Ferretti & Francesco Pattarin, 2008. "Is public information really public? The role of newspapers," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0008, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    10. Tsao, J.Y. & Boyack, K.W. & Coltrin, M.E. & Turnley, J.G. & Gauster, W.B., 2008. "Galileo's stream: A framework for understanding knowledge production," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 330-352, March.
    11. Guy Mayraz, 2011. "Wishful Thinking," CEP Discussion Papers dp1092, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    12. Jan Engelmann & Maël Lebreton & Peter Schwardmann & Joël van der Weele & Li-Ang Chang, 2019. "Anticipatory Anxiety and Wishful Thinking," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-042/I, Tinbergen Institute.
    13. Elena Argentesi & Helmut Lütkepohl & Massimo Motta, 2010. "Acquisition of Information and Share Prices: An Empirical Investigation of Cognitive Dissonance," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11(3), pages 381-396, August.
    14. repec:cep:stieop:46 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Riccardo Ferretti & Francesco Pattarin, 2008. "Is public information really public? The role of newspapers," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 08013, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    16. Matthew Gentzkow & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2008. "Competition and Truth in the Market for News," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(2), pages 133-154, Spring.
    17. Bracha, Anat & Brown, Donald J., 2012. "Affective decision making: A theory of optimism bias," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 67-80.
    18. Leeat Yariv, 2005. "I’ll See It When I Believe It: A Simple Model of Cognitive Consistency," Working Papers 2005-3, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    19. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Filippos Papakonstantinou & Jonathan A. Parker, 2017. "Optimal Time-Inconsistent Beliefs: Misplanning, Procrastination, and Commitment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(5), pages 1318-1340, May.
    20. Little, Andrew T., 2022. "Information Theory and Biased Beliefs," OSF Preprints vfqy2, Center for Open Science.
    21. Eliaz, Kfir & Spiegler, Ran, 2006. "Can anticipatory feelings explain anomalous choices of information sources?," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 87-104, July.
    22. Josep Rosanas, 2008. "Beyond Economic Criteria: A Humanistic Approach to Organizational Survival," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 78(3), pages 447-462, March.
    23. Raphaël Giraud, 2004. "Reference-dependent preferences: rationality, mechanism and welfare implications," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques v04087, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
    24. Ambroise Descamps & Sebastien Massoni & Lionel Page, 2019. "Learning to hesitate," Working Paper Series 58, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    25. Suzuki, Toru, 2019. "Choice set dependent performance and post-decision dissonance," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 24-42.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Belief utility; cognitive dissonance; confirmatory bias; overconfidence; selective exposure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C90 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - General
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • M30 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Marketing and Advertising - - - General

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