IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aecrev/v105y2015i7p2204-41.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating a War of Attrition: The Case of the US Movie Theater Industry

Author

Listed:
  • Yuya Takahashi

Abstract

This paper empirically studies firm's strategic exit decisions in an environment where demand is declining. Specifically, I quantify the extent to which the exit process generated by firms' strategic interactions deviates from the outcome that maximizes industry profits. I develop and estimate a dynamic exit game using data from the US movie theater industry in the 1950s, when the industry faced demand declines. Using the estimated model, I quantify the magnitude of strategic delays and find that strategic interactions cause an average delay of exit of 2.7 years. I calculate the relative importance of several components of these strategic delays. (JEL D92, L11, L82, N72)

Suggested Citation

  • Yuya Takahashi, 2015. "Estimating a War of Attrition: The Case of the US Movie Theater Industry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(7), pages 2204-2241, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:105:y:2015:i:7:p:2204-41
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.20110701
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.20110701
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/aer/ds/10507/20110701_ds.zip
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/aer/data/10507/20110701_data.zip
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/aer/app/10507/20110701_app.pdf
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Victor Aguirregabiria & Pedro Mira, 2007. "Sequential Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(1), pages 1-53, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Victor Aguirregabiria & Allan Collard-Wexler & Stephen P. Ryan, 2021. "Dynamic Games in Empirical Industrial Organization," Papers 2109.01725, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2021.
    2. Kimbrough, Erik O. & Laughren, Kevin & Sheremeta, Roman, 2020. "War and conflict in economics: Theories, applications, and recent trends," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 998-1013.
    3. Abbring, Jaap & Campbell, J.R. & Tilly, J. & Yang, N., 2018. "Very Simple Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics (revision of 2017-021) : Empirics," Discussion Paper 2018-040, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    4. Yingyao Hu & Yi Xin, 2019. "Identi?cation and estimation of dynamic structural models with unobserved choices," CeMMAP working papers CWP35/19, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    5. Sasaki, Yuya & Takahashi, Yuya & Xin, Yi & Hu, Yingyao, 2023. "Dynamic discrete choice models with incomplete data: Sharp identification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    6. Georgiadis, George & Kim, Youngsoo & Kwon, H. Dharma, 2022. "The absence of attrition in a war of attrition under complete information," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 171-185.
    7. Décamps, Jean-Paul & Gensbittel, Fabien & Mariotti, Thomas, 2022. "Mixed-Strategy Equilibria in the War of Attrition under Uncertainty," TSE Working Papers 22-1374, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised 22 Nov 2023.
    8. El Hadi Caoui, 2019. "Estimating the Costs of Standardization: Evidence from the Movie Industry," CESifo Working Paper Series 8040, CESifo.
    9. Jaap H. Abbring & Jeffrey R. Campbell & Jan Tilly & Nan Yang, 2018. "Very Simple Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics: Empirics," Working Paper Series WP-2018-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Repullo, Rafael & Elizalde, Abel, 2004. "Economic and Regulatory Capital: What is the Difference?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4770, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Alexandre Janiak & Paulo Santos Monteiro, 2011. "Inflation and Welfare in Long‐Run Equilibrium with Firm Dynamics," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(5), pages 795-834, August.
    3. Taisuke Otsu & Martin Pesendorfer & Yuya Sasaki & Yuya Takahashi, 2022. "Estimation Of (Static Or Dynamic) Games Under Equilibrium Multiplicity," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1165-1188, August.
    4. Aamir Rafique Hashmi & Johannes Van Biesebroeck, 2016. "The Relationship between Market Structure and Innovation in Industry Equilibrium: A Case Study of the Global Automobile Industry," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(1), pages 192-208, March.
    5. Paul Ellickson & Sanjog Misra, 2012. "Enriching interactions: Incorporating outcome data into static discrete games," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 1-26, March.
    6. Otsu, Taisuke & Pesendorfer, Martin & Takahashi, Yuya, 2013. "Testing for Equilibrium Multiplicity in Dynamic Markov Games," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 423, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
    7. C. Lanier Benkard & Przemyslaw Jeziorski & Gabriel Y. Weintraub, 2013. "Oblivious Equilibrium for Concentrated Industries," NBER Working Papers 19307, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Hu Yingyao & Shum Matthew & Tan Wei & Xiao Ruli, 2017. "A Simple Estimator for Dynamic Models with Serially Correlated Unobservables," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-16, January.
    9. Wang, Yafeng & Graham, Brett, 2009. "Generalized Maximum Entropy estimation of discrete sequential move games of perfect information," MPRA Paper 21331, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Sanjog Misra, 2013. "Markov chain Monte Carlo for incomplete information discrete games," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 117-153, March.
    11. Raphael Corbi & Fabio Miessi Sanches, 2022. "Church Competition, Religious Subsidies and the Rise of Evangelicalism: a Dynamic Structural Analysis," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2022_09, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    12. Mitsukuni Nishida, 2015. "Estimating a Model of Strategic Network Choice: The Convenience-Store Industry in Okinawa," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 34(1), pages 20-38, January.
    13. Joao Macieira, 2010. "Oblivious Equilibrium in Dynamic Discrete Games," 2010 Meeting Papers 680, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Patrick Bajari & C. Lanier Benkard & Jonathan Levin, 2007. "Estimating Dynamic Models of Imperfect Competition," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(5), pages 1331-1370, September.
    15. Kajal Lahiri & Chuanming Gao & Bernard Wixon, 2020. "Value of Sample Separation Information in a Sequential Probit Model," Arthaniti: Journal of Economic Theory and Practice, , vol. 19(2), pages 151-176, December.
    16. Andrew Sweeting, 2007. "Dynamic Product Repositioning in Differentiated Product Markets: The Case of Format Switching in the Commercial Radio Industry," NBER Working Papers 13522, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Barseghyan, Levon & DiCecio, Riccardo, 2011. "Entry costs, industry structure, and cross-country income and TFP differences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(5), pages 1828-1851, September.
    18. Jayakumar Subramanian & Amit Sinha & Aditya Mahajan, 2023. "Robustness and Sample Complexity of Model-Based MARL for General-Sum Markov Games," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 56-88, March.
    19. Aguirregabiria, Victor & Gu, Jiaying & Luo, Yao, 2021. "Sufficient statistics for unobserved heterogeneity in structural dynamic logit models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 223(2), pages 280-311.
    20. Higgins, Ayden & Jochmans, Koen, 2023. "Identification of mixtures of dynamic discrete choices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(1).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • L82 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Entertainment; Media
    • N72 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:105:y:2015:i:7:p:2204-41. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael P. Albert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.