IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aecrev/v102y2012i3p173-78.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interactions and Indeterminacy in Postwar US Data

Author

Listed:
  • Saroj Bhattarai
  • Jae Won Lee
  • Woong Yong Park

Abstract

Using a micro-founded model and a likelihood-based inference method, we show that while a passive monetary and passive fiscal policy regime prevailed in the U.S. before Paul Volcker's chairmanship at the Federal Reserve, an active monetary and passive fiscal policy regime prevailed after his appointment. Since both monetary and fiscal policies were passive pre-Volcker, equilibrium indeterminacy was a feature of the economy. Finally, pre-Volcker, the effects of unanticipated policy shifts were substantially different from those predicted by conventional monetary models: unanticipated increases in interest rates increased inflation and output, while unanticipated increases in lump-sum taxes decreased inflation and output.

Suggested Citation

  • Saroj Bhattarai & Jae Won Lee & Woong Yong Park, 2012. "Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interactions and Indeterminacy in Postwar US Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 173-178, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:102:y:2012:i:3:p:173-78
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.102.3.173
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Saroj Bhattarai & Jae Won Lee & Woong Yong Park, 2016. "Policy Regimes, Policy Shifts, and U.S. Business Cycles," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(5), pages 968-983, December.
    2. Cochrane, John H, 2001. "Long-Term Debt and Optimal Policy in the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 69-116, January.
    3. Woodford, Michael, 1995. "Price-level determinacy without control of a monetary aggregate," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 1-46, December.
    4. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2006. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 54-81, March.
    5. Farmer, Roger E.A. & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2011. "Minimal state variable solutions to Markov-switching rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2150-2166.
    6. Sims, Christopher A, 1994. "A Simple Model for Study of the Determination of the Price Level and the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 4(3), pages 381-399.
    7. Sims, Christopher A, 2002. "Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 20(1-2), pages 1-20, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Saroj Bhattarai & Jae Won Lee & Woong Yong Park, 2016. "Policy Regimes, Policy Shifts, and U.S. Business Cycles," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(5), pages 968-983, December.
    2. Kostas Mavromatis, 2020. "Finite Horizons and the Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(4), pages 327-378, September.
    3. Denny Lie, 2009. "State-dependent pricing and optimal monetary policy," Working Papers 09-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    4. Barnett, William A. & Bella, Giovanni & Ghosh, Taniya & Mattana, Paolo & Venturi, Beatrice, 2022. "Shilnikov chaos, low interest rates, and New Keynesian macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    5. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2017_009 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Guido Ascari & Anna Florio & Alessandro Gobbi, 2020. "Controlling Inflation With Timid Monetary–Fiscal Regime Changes," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 61(2), pages 1001-1024, May.
    7. Bhattarai, Saroj & Lee, Jae Won & Park, Woong Yong, 2014. "Price indexation, habit formation, and the Generalized Taylor Principle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 218-225.
    8. Li, Bing & Pei, Pei & Tan, Fei, 2021. "Financial distress and fiscal inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    9. de Haan, J. & Eijffinger, Sylvester, 2016. "The Politics of Central Bank Independence," Discussion Paper 2016-047, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    10. Yasuo Hirose & Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2015. "Monetary policy, trend inflation, and the Great Moderation: an alternative interpretation: comment based on system estimation," Research Working Paper RWP 15-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    11. Hirose, Yasuo, 2020. "An Estimated Dsge Model With A Deflation Steady State," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(5), pages 1151-1185, July.
    12. Bouabdallah, Othman & Jacquinot, Pascal & Patella, Valeria, 2023. "Monetary/fiscal policy regimes in post-war Europe," Working Paper Series 2871, European Central Bank.
    13. Ascari, Guido & Florio, Anna & Gobbi, Alessandro, 2017. "Controlling inflation with switching monetary and fiscal policies: expectations, fiscal guidance and timid regime changes," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 9/2017, Bank of Finland.
    14. Bhattarai, Saroj & Lee, Jae Won & Park, Woong Yong, 2014. "Inflation dynamics: The role of public debt and policy regimes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 93-108.
    15. Qazi Haque, 2017. "Monetary Policy, Target Inflation and the Great Moderation: An Empirical Investigation," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2017-10, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
    16. Alban Moura, 2016. "The Effects of Government Spending Endogeneity on Estimated Multipliers in the U.S," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 121-122, pages 359-384.
    17. Hollmayr, Josef & Matthes, Christian, 2015. "Tales of transition paths: Policy uncertainty and random walks," Discussion Papers 14/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    18. Guido Ascari & Anna Florio & Alessandro Gobbi, 2016. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions: Leeper (1991) Redux," Economics Series Working Papers 788, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    19. Yasuo Hirose & Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2020. "Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stability Revisited," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 255-274, July.
    20. Ascari, Guido & Florio, Anna & Gobbi, Alessandro, 2017. "Controlling inflation with switching monetary and fiscal policies: expectations, fiscal guidance and timid regime changes," Research Discussion Papers 9/2017, Bank of Finland.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Saroj Bhattarai & Jae Won Lee & Woong Yong Park, 2016. "Policy Regimes, Policy Shifts, and U.S. Business Cycles," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(5), pages 968-983, December.
    2. Francesco Bianchi & Cosmin Ilut, 2017. "Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Agent's Beliefs," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 26, pages 113-139, October.
    3. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2017. "Escaping the Great Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(4), pages 1030-1058, April.
    4. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2014. "Dormant Shocks and Fiscal Virtue," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(1), pages 1-46.
    5. Liu, Ding & Sun, Weihong & Chang, Long, 2021. "Monetary–fiscal policy regime and macroeconomic dynamics in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 121-135.
    6. Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo, 2013. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions: interdependent policy rule coefficients," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-58, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Gliksberg, Baruch, 2013. "Monetary policy and fiscal limits with no-default," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 285-304.
    8. Das, Piyali, 2021. "Fiscal financing components in a simple model of policy interaction," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 257-276.
    9. Hess Chung & Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2007. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Switching," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(4), pages 809-842, June.
    10. Wolf, Martin & Müller, Gernot & Kriwoluzky, Alexander, 2013. "Currency Risk in Currency Unions," CEPR Discussion Papers 9635, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Bianchi, Francesco & Melosi, Leonardo, 2019. "The dire effects of the lack of monetary and fiscal coordination," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 1-22.
    12. Gliksberg, Baruch, "undated". "Solving Boundary Value Problems in the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," Working Papers WP2013/2, University of Haifa, Department of Economics.
    13. Leeper, E.M. & Leith, C., 2016. "Understanding Inflation as a Joint Monetary–Fiscal Phenomenon," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2305-2415, Elsevier.
    14. Bhattarai, Saroj & Lee, Jae Won & Park, Woong Yong, 2014. "Inflation dynamics: The role of public debt and policy regimes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 93-108.
    15. Francesco Bianchi & Renato Faccini & Leonardo Melosi, 2020. "Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Times of Large Debt: Unity is Strength," Working Paper Series WP 2020-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    16. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Díaz-Roldán, Carmen & Esteve, Vicente, 2014. "Deficit sustainability, and monetary versus fiscal dominance: The case of Spain, 1850–2000," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 924-937.
    17. Creel, Jerome & Bihan, Herve Le, 2006. "Using structural balance data to test the fiscal theory of the price level: Some international evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 338-360, June.
    18. Marco Bassetto, 2002. "A Game-Theoretic View of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(6), pages 2167-2195, November.
    19. Howard Kung & Gonzalo Morales & Alexandre Corhay, 2017. "Fiscal Discount Rates and Debt Maturity," 2017 Meeting Papers 840, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Willem Buiter, 2004. "A Small Corner of Intertemporal Public Finance - New Developments in Monetary Economics: 2 Ghosts, 2 Eccentricities, A Fallacy, A Mirage and A Mythos," NBER Working Papers 10524, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:102:y:2012:i:3:p:173-78. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael P. Albert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.