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A game-theoretic view of the fiscal theory of the price level

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Marco Bassetto

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Abstract

The goal of this paper is to probe the validity of the fiscal theory of the price level by modeling explicitly the market structure in which households and the governments make their decisions. I describe the economy as a game, and I am thus able to state precisely the consequences of actions that are out of the equilibrium path. I show that there exist government strategies that lead to a version of the fiscal theory, in which the price level is determined by fiscal variables alone. However, these strategies are more complex than the simple budgetary rules usually associated with the fiscal theory, and the government budget constraint cannot be merely viewed as an equilibrium condition.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Working Papers with number 612.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Publication status: Published in Econometrica> (Vol. 70, No. 6, November 2002, pp. 2167-2195)
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmwp:612

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Keywords: Price levels;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Stokey, Nancy L., 1991. "Credible public policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 627-656, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Fudenberg, Drew & Levine, David & Pesendorfer, Wolfgang, 1998. "When Are Nonanonymous Players Negligible?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 46-71, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Cochrane, John H, 2001. "Long-Term Debt and Optimal Policy in the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 69-116, January.
    Other versions:
  4. Sims, Christopher A, 1994. "A Simple Model for Study of the Determination of the Price Level and the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 381-99.
  5. Gale, Douglas M, 1986. "Bargaining and Competition Part I: Characterization," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(4), pages 785-806, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Gale, Douglas M, 1986. "Bargaining and Competition Part II: Existence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(4), pages 807-18, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Willem H. Buiter, 1999. "The Fallacy of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," NBER Working Papers 7302, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. David K. Levine & Wolfgang Pesendorfer, 1995. "When Are Agents Negligible?," Levine's Working Paper Archive 96, David K. Levine. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Chari, V V & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1990. "Sustainable Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 783-802, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Michael Woodford, 1996. "Control of the Public Debt: A Requirement for Price Stability?," NBER Working Papers 5684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2000. "Understanding the fiscal theory of the price level," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q II, pages 2-38. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Marco Bassetto, 2002. "Equilibrium and government commitment," Working Papers 624, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Cochrane, John H., 2005. "Money as stock," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 501-528, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Dupor, Bill, 2000. "Exchange rates and the fiscal theory of the price level," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 613-630, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1981. "Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall. [Downloadable!]
  17. Rubinstein, Ariel & Wolinsky, Asher, 1985. "Equilibrium in a Market with Sequential Bargaining," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(5), pages 1133-50, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Michael Woodford, 1995. "Price Level Determinacy Without Control of a Monetary Aggregate," NBER Working Papers 5204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Woodford, M., 1997. "Doing Without Money: Controlling Inflation in a Post-Monetary World," Papers 632, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
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  20. Woodford, Michael, 1994. "Monetary Policy and Price Level Determinacy in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 345-80.
  21. Narayana Kocherlakota & Christopher Phelan, 1999. "Explaining the fiscal theory of the price level," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 14-23. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Leopold von Thadden, 2004. "Active monetary policy, passive fiscal policy and the value of pure debt: some further monetarist arithmetic," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 108, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  2. Irasema Alonso, 2004. "Persistent, Nonfundamental Exchange Rate Fluctuations," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(3), pages 687-706, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Andrew Atkeson & V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2007. "On the optimal choice of a monetary policy instrument," Staff Report 394, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. António Afonso, 2002. "Disturbing the fiscal theory of the price level: Can it fit the eu-15?," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 B4-3, International Conferences on Panel Data. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Marco Bassetto, 2002. "Equilibrium and government commitment," Working Papers 624, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Irasema Alonso, 2001. "Patterns of Exchange, Fiat Money, and Coordination," Advances in Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 1(advances/), pages 1026-1026. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Marco Bassetto, 2004. "Negative Nominal Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 104-108, May. [Downloadable!]
  8. Andrew Atkeson & V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2008. "Sophisticated monetary policies," Working Papers 659, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Alexandre B. Cunha, 2006. "Implications of the Modigliani-Miller Theorem for the Study of Exchange Rate Regimes," IBMEC RJ Economics Discussion Papers 2006-03, Economics Research Group, IBMEC Business School - Rio de Janeiro. [Downloadable!]
  10. Óscar J. Arce, 2005. "Reflections on fiscalist divergent price-paths," Banco de España Working Papers 0533, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  11. Michael Kumhof, 2004. "Fiscal Crisis Resolution: Taxation versus Inflation," Working Papers 102004, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
  12. Michael Woodford, 2001. "Fiscal Requirements for Price Stability," NBER Working Papers 8072, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Andrew Atkeson & Vyjayanthi Chari & Patrick Kehoe, 2007. "The Optimal Choice of a Monetary Policy Instrument," Working Papers CAS_RN_2007_1, Laboratory for Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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