IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/sfb649/sfb649dp2017-027.html

Dynamic semi-parametric factor model for functional expectiles

Author

Listed:
  • Burdejová, Petra
  • Härdle, Wolfgang Karl

Abstract

High-frequency data can provide us with a quantity of informa- tion for forecasting, help to calculate and prevent the future risk based on extremes. This tail behaviour is very often driven by ex- ogenous components and may be modelled conditional on other vari- ables. However, many of these phenomena are observed over time, exhibiting non-trivial dynamics and dependencies. We propose a func- tional dynamic factor model to study the dynamics of expectile curves. The complexity of the model and the number of dependent variables are reduced by lasso penalization. The functional factors serve as a low-dimensional representation of the conditional tail event, while the time-variation is captured by factor loadings. We illustrate the model with an application to climatology, where daily data over years on temperature, rainfalls or strength of wind are available.

Suggested Citation

  • Burdejová, Petra & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl, 2017. "Dynamic semi-parametric factor model for functional expectiles," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2017-027, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2017-027
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/191791/1/SFB649DP2017-027.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Choroś-Tomczyk, Barbara & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Okhrin, Ostap, 2016. "A semiparametric factor model for CDO surfaces dynamics," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 151-163.
    2. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2014-001 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Wolfgang K. Härdle & Piotr Majer, 2016. "Yield curve modeling and forecasting using semiparametric factor dynamics," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(12), pages 1109-1129, September.
    4. Brenda López Cabrera & Franziska Schulz, 2017. "Forecasting Generalized Quantiles of Electricity Demand: A Functional Data Approach," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 112(517), pages 127-136, January.
    5. Song Song & Wolfgang K. Härdle & Ya'acov Ritov, 2014. "Generalized dynamic semi‐parametric factor models for high‐dimensional non‐stationary time series," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 17(2), pages 101-131, June.
    6. Schnabel, Sabine K. & Eilers, Paul H.C., 2009. "Optimal expectile smoothing," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(12), pages 4168-4177, October.
    7. Jones, M. C., 1994. "Expectiles and M-quantiles are quantiles," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 149-153, May.
    8. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-489, October.
    9. Burdejova, P. & Härdle, W. & Kokoszka, P. & Xiong, Q., 2017. "Change point and trend analyses of annual expectile curves of tropical storms," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 1(C), pages 101-117.
    10. Carter, Lawrence R. & Lee, Ronald D., 1992. "Modeling and forecasting US sex differentials in mortality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 393-411, November.
    11. Newey, Whitney K & Powell, James L, 1987. "Asymmetric Least Squares Estimation and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(4), pages 819-847, July.
    12. Park, Byeong U. & Mammen, Enno & Härdle, Wolfgang & Borak, Szymon, 2009. "Time Series Modelling With Semiparametric Factor Dynamics," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 104(485), pages 284-298.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2017-027 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Otto-Sobotka, Fabian & Salvati, Nicola & Ranalli, Maria Giovanna & Kneib, Thomas, 2019. "Adaptive semiparametric M-quantile regression," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 116-129.
    3. C. Adam & I. Gijbels, 2022. "Local polynomial expectile regression," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 74(2), pages 341-378, April.
    4. Daouia, Abdelaati & Paindaveine, Davy, 2019. "Multivariate Expectiles, Expectile Depth and Multiple-Output Expectile Regression," TSE Working Papers 19-1022, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Feb 2023.
    5. Lina Liao & Cheolwoo Park & Hosik Choi, 2019. "Penalized expectile regression: an alternative to penalized quantile regression," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 71(2), pages 409-438, April.
    6. Kim, Joonpyo & Oh, Hee-Seok, 2020. "Pseudo-quantile functional data clustering," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    7. Stahlschmidt, Stephan & Eckardt, Matthias & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl, 2014. "Expectile treatment effects: An efficient alternative to compute the distribution of treatment effects," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2014-059, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    8. Shangyu Xie & Yong Zhou & Alan T. K. Wan, 2014. "A Varying-Coefficient Expectile Model for Estimating Value at Risk," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 576-592, October.
    9. Cascos, Ignacio & Ochoa, Maicol, 2021. "Expectile depth: Theory and computation for bivariate datasets," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    10. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2014-059 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Hu, Junjie & López Cabrera, Brenda & Melzer, Awdesch, 2021. "Advanced statistical learning on short term load process forecasting," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2021-020, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    12. Qinyu Wu & Fan Yang & Ping Zhang, 2023. "Conditional generalized quantiles based on expected utility model and equivalent characterization of properties," Papers 2301.12420, arXiv.org.
    13. Burdejova, P. & Härdle, W. & Kokoszka, P. & Xiong, Q., 2017. "Change point and trend analyses of annual expectile curves of tropical storms," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 1(C), pages 101-117.
    14. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2010-039 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Bellini, Fabio & Klar, Bernhard & Müller, Alfred & Rosazza Gianin, Emanuela, 2014. "Generalized quantiles as risk measures," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 41-48.
    16. Borus Jungbacker & Siem Jan Koopman & Michel van der Wel, 0000. "Dynamic Factor Models with Smooth Loadings for Analyzing the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 09-041/4, Tinbergen Institute, revised 17 Sep 2010.
    17. Daouia, Abdelaati & Stupfler, Gilles & Usseglio-Carleve, Antoine, 2022. "Inference for extremal regression with dependent heavy-tailed data," TSE Working Papers 22-1324, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised 29 Aug 2023.
    18. Bonaccolto, Giovanni & Caporin, Massimiliano & Maillet, Bertrand B., 2022. "Dynamic large financial networks via conditional expected shortfalls," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 298(1), pages 322-336.
    19. Zhao, Jun & Chen, Yingyu & Zhang, Yi, 2018. "Expectile regression for analyzing heteroscedasticity in high dimension," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 304-311.
    20. Shih-Kang Chao & Katharina Proksch & Holger Dette & Wolfgang Karl Härdle, 2017. "Confidence Corridors for Multivariate Generalized Quantile Regression," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 70-85, January.
    21. Ren, Rui & Lu, Meng-Jou & Li, Yingxing & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl, 2022. "Financial Risk Meter FRM based on Expectiles," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    22. Zhang, Feipeng & Li, Qunhua, 2017. "A continuous threshold expectile model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 49-66.
    23. V. Maume-Deschamps & D. Rullière & A. Usseglio-Carleve, 2018. "Spatial Expectile Predictions for Elliptical Random Fields," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 643-671, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2017-027. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sohubde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.