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The religious transition: a long-run perspective

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  • Paldam, Martin
  • Gundlach, Erich

Abstract

We use factor analysis to derive a robust measure of religiosity from items reported in five waves of the World Value Survey. Our measure of religiosity is negatively correlated with per capita income. Development apparently causes religiosity to fall to about half its pre-modern level. Most components of the demand for religion are reduced by development. The supply of religion declines once churches lose control over the institutions providing collective goods like education, health, and social security. These goods used to be supplied by churches jointly with religious services but tend to be supplied by the state with rising levels of development. Aspects of supply and demand are integrated in a CES production function framework that can explain the direction of causality in the observed negative correlation between income and religiosity.

Suggested Citation

  • Paldam, Martin & Gundlach, Erich, 2009. "The religious transition: a long-run perspective," Kiel Working Papers 1576, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1576
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    Cited by:

    1. Gouda Moamen & Park Sang-Min, 2015. "Religious Loyalty and Acceptance of Corruption," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 235(2), pages 184-206, April.
    2. Opfinger, Matthias & Gundlach, Erich, 2011. "Religiosity as a determinant of happiness," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 48360, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. David de la Croix & Fabio Mariani & Marion Mercier, 2023. "Driven By Institutions, Shaped By Culture: Human Capital And The Secularization Of Marriage In Italy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1777-1818, November.
    4. Ella Paldam & Martin Paldam, 2017. "The political economy of churches in Denmark, 1300–2015," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 443-463, September.
    5. Martin Paldam, 2019. "Does system instability harm development? A comparative empirical study of the long run," Economics Working Papers 2019-07, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    6. Erich Gundlach & Martin Paldam, 2016. "Socioeconomic transitions as common dynamic processes," Economics Working Papers 2016-06, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    7. Sascha O. Becker & Markus Nagler & Ludger Woessmann, 2017. "Education and religious participation: city-level evidence from Germany’s secularization period 1890–1930," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 273-311, September.
    8. Pittaluga, Giovanni B. & Reghezza, Alessio & Seghezza, Elena, 2020. "Reconsidering the modernization hypothesis: The role of diversified production and interest‐group competition," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    9. Holger Strulik, 2016. "Secularization And Long-Run Economic Growth," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(1), pages 177-200, January.
    10. Kenneth Harttgen & Matthias Opfinger, 2014. "National Identity and Religious Diversity," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(3), pages 346-367, August.
    11. Liang, Yinhe & Dong, Zhiyong, 2019. "Has education led to secularization? Based on the study of compulsory education law in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 324-336.
    12. Erich Gundlach & Matthias Opfinger, 2013. "Special Issue. Guest Editor: Zhihao Yu," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 523-539, August.
    13. Pál Czeglédi, 2023. "Why is the West unique in linking religiosity to market friendliness?," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 73-88, February.
    14. Harttgen, Kenneth & Opfinger, Matthias, 2012. "In the Nation We Trust: National Identity as a Substitute for Religion," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-491, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    15. Klaus Prettner & Holger Strulik, 2017. "It's a Sin—Contraceptive Use, Religious Beliefs, and Long-run Economic Development," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 543-566, August.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • Z12 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Religion

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