Emigration from Affluence: Dynamic Selection and the Non-return of High Earners among Native Norwegians

Using population-wide Norwegian registers (2000-2023), we examine emigration, continued residence abroad, return, and renewed emigration among 4.3 million native Norwegians (74.4 million person-years). Estimating annual transitions through 2022, we compare each movement with its forgone alternative, allowing recent location history to shape the next choice. This design identifies selection dynamics that conventional two-state models obscure. Higher education is associated with both emigration and return, indicating human capital circulation. By contrast, income selection is asymmetric, as below-average incomes are associated with mobility in both directions, top earners are positively associated with emigration after persistent residence in Norway, and top potential income is associated with non-return. Distinctly, wealth is associated with higher emigration and return, signaling circularity. Employment is associated with return after persistent foreign residence but with non-return after recent departure. Native emigration from affluent welfare states with low-mobility barriers is a dynamic sequence, not a simple one-time exit.