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The Legacy of China's One-Child Policy on Human Capital: How Being Raised by an Only Child Affects Cognitive and Noncognitive Skill Development

Author

Listed:
  • Feng, Shuaizhang
  • Gan, Yu
  • Han, Yujie
  • Kautz, Tim

Abstract

China's One-Child Policy (OCP) restricted most couples to a single birth, leading to a rapid increase in the prevalence of only children. Using longitudinal data and a regression discontinuity design around the policy's start, we estimate the effects on grandchildren's human capital. We find that children with only-child mothers perform significantly better in cognitive skills (0.71 SD) and noncognitive skills (0.50 SD) than comparable peers. The effects are larger for boys, consistent with son preference, and for those with less-educated grandparents, for whom quantity-quality trade-offs are more applicable. Additionally, we find that only-child parents have higher educational attainment and provide more favorable home environments, which may explain their children's advantages in human capital outcomes. These findings suggest that, in the presence of quantity-quality trade-offs, fertility restrictions can improve human capital across multiple generations.

Suggested Citation

  • Feng, Shuaizhang & Gan, Yu & Han, Yujie & Kautz, Tim, 2026. "The Legacy of China's One-Child Policy on Human Capital: How Being Raised by an Only Child Affects Cognitive and Noncognitive Skill Development," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1706, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:1706
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shige Song & Weidong Wang, 2019. "Testing the Only-Child Advantage in Cognitive Development in the Context of China’s One-Child Policy," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 38(6), pages 841-867, December.
    2. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D. Cattaneo & Max H. Farrell & Roc ́ıo Titiunik, 2017. "rdrobust: Software for regression-discontinuity designs," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 17(2), pages 372-404, June.
    3. Chinhui Juhn & Yona Rubinstein & C. Andrew Zuppann, 2015. "The Quantity-Quality Trade-off and the Formation of Cognitive and Non-cognitive Skills," NBER Working Papers 21824, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • I2 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education

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