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Global Hodge-Econometric Modeling of the World Economy: A Regional Benchmark Prototype for Topological Flow Decomposition, Systemic Circulation, Shock Transmission, and Macroeconomic Resilience

Author

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  • Gondauri, Davit

Abstract

This study develops a regional benchmark and proof-of-concept Hodge-econometric framework for measuring the world economy as a connected topological macro-flow system rather than as a set of isolated output aggregates. Using official public macroeconomic anchors--regional GDP, world-output share, projected growth, transition GDP, and income depth--the study constructs a weighted regional network of ten global macro-regions, with the World used as a normalization anchor and the Caucasus retained as an explicit corridor-sensitive subregional node. The methodology is quantitative, non-experimental, computational, and validation-oriented: it combines gravity-style network construction, directed macro-flow pressure, discrete Hodge decomposition, spectral and higher-order Hodge-Laplacian diagnostics, robust econometric testing, machine-learning forecast validation, and persistent-homology confirmation. The central novelty is the transformation of standard macroeconomic indicators into a decomposable edge cochain, allowing regional hierarchy, local-cycle imbalance, harmonic systemic circulation, shock-transmission exposure, resilience, and tail risk to be measured within one coherent empirical architecture. The regional benchmark shows that the constructed graph is connected and cycle-rich, with 10 nodes, 27 edges, a density of 0.600, and a transitivity of 0.740. The Hodge energy decomposition separates macro-flow pressure into gradient hierarchy (49.69%), curl/local-cycle imbalance (36.22%), and harmonic/systemic circulation (14.09%), indicating that global-regional structure is not reducible to GDP size alone. Econometric, predictive, and topological tests are used as internal benchmark-validation diagnostics, not as final causal estimates for all countries or observed dyadic flows. The study therefore contributes a reproducible measurement architecture for international macroeconomic analysis and is best understood as a mathematically grounded prototype for future all-country, dyadic, multilayer, and longitudinal replication.

Suggested Citation

  • Gondauri, Davit, 2026. "Global Hodge-Econometric Modeling of the World Economy: A Regional Benchmark Prototype for Topological Flow Decomposition, Systemic Circulation, Shock Transmission, and Macroeconomic Resilience," EconStor Preprints 341543, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:esprep:341543
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    JEL classification:

    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods

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