IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ysm/somwrk/ysm271.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Stock Market as a 'Beauty Contest': Investor Beliefs and Price Bubbles sans Dividend Anchors

Author

Listed:
  • Shinichi Hirota

    () (Graduate School of Commerce)

  • Shyam NMI Sunder

    () (School of Management)

Abstract

We experimentally explore if the absence of dividend anchors (from which investors can backward induct to arrive at the fundamental value) may help us understand the formation of security price bubbles. The fundamental value models assume that the investors (a) form rational expectations, (b) form higher-order beliefs, (c) the security matures in finite time, and (d) that these three conditions are common knowledge among the investors. We argue that when the deviation of security markets from these assumptions deprives the investors of any reasonable way of backward inducting the fundamental value of a security from its future dividends, its price is susceptible to floating freely. We create laboratory markets with exogenously and endogenously specified terminal values, and examine whether the absence of a dividend anchor generates price deviations from the fundamentals. We find that such deviations occur in sessions where it is difficult for investors to backward induct value from dividends. Bubble price levels appear to be indeterminate, and price predictions follow a first-order adaptive or trend process. These processes are consistent with the conjecture that the investors resort to forward induction when backward induction becomes difficult or impossible. Under these conditions, the allocative efficiency and the cross-sectional dispersion of wealth also become indeterminate, as compared to high efficiency and low dispersion in the absence of bubbles.

Suggested Citation

  • Shinichi Hirota & Shyam NMI Sunder, 2002. "Stock Market as a 'Beauty Contest': Investor Beliefs and Price Bubbles sans Dividend Anchors," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm271, Yale School of Management.
  • Handle: RePEc:ysm:somwrk:ysm271
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=302393
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mayer, Colin, 1988. "New issues in corporate finance," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1167-1183, June.
    2. repec:hrv:faseco:30728046 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1997. " A Survey of Corporate Governance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 737-783, June.
    4. Schmidt, Klaus M., 1996. "Managerial Incentives and Product Market Competition," CEPR Discussion Papers 1382, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Dore, Ronald & Lazonick, William & O'Sullivan, Mary, 1999. "Varieties of Capitalism in the Twentieth Century," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(4), pages 102-120, Winter.
    6. Nickell, Stephen J, 1996. "Competition and Corporate Performance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(4), pages 724-746, August.
    7. Klaus M. Schmidt, 1997. "Managerial Incentives and Product Market Competition," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 64(2), pages 191-213.
    8. Motohiro Morishima, 1991. "Information Sharing and Collective Bargaining in Japan: Effects on Wage Negotiation," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 44(3), pages 469-485, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Virtudes Alba-Fernández & Pablo Brañas-Garza & Francisca Jiménez-Jiménez & Javier Rodero-Cosano, 2006. "Teaching Nash Equilibrium and Dominance: A Classroom Experiment on the Beauty Contest," The Journal of Economic Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 305-322, July.
    2. Pyemo N. Afego, 2013. "Stock Price Response to Earnings Announcements: Evidence From the Nigerian Stock Market," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 141-149, December.
    3. Pyemo Afego, 2012. "Weak Form Efficiency of the Nigerian Stock Market: An Empirical Analysis (1984 – 2009)," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(3), pages 340-347.
    4. Gode, Dhananjay (Dan) K. & Sunder, Shyam, 2004. "Double auction dynamics: structural effects of non-binding price controls," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 1707-1731, July.
    5. Barton, Jan & Waymire, Gregory, 2004. "Investor protection under unregulated financial reporting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 65-116, December.
    6. Lagoarde-Segot, Thomas & Lucey, Brian M., 2008. "Efficiency in emerging markets--Evidence from the MENA region," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 94-105, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock Price Bubbles; Beauty Contests; Common Knowledge; Market Experiments;

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ysm:somwrk:ysm271. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/smyalus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.