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FIW-Jahresgutachten 2026 Die österreichische Außenwirtschaft

Author

Listed:
  • Harald Oberhofer
  • Elisabeth Christen
  • Vasily Astrov
  • Robert Stehrer
  • Martin Ertl
  • Adrian Wende
  • Klaus Weyerstraß

Abstract

Das Jahr 2025 war von Donald Trumps protektionistischer Handelspolitik und der damit einhergehenden handelspolitischen Unsicherheit geprägt. Mit dem Ausbruch des Kriegs zwischen den USA und Israel auf der einen und dem Iran auf der anderen Seite Ende Februar 2026 rückte der Nahe Osten in den Fokus der weltwirtschaftlichen Entwicklungen. Die Blockade der Straße von Hormus löste einen Energiepreisschock aus, der die globale Konjunkturerholung dämpft und insbesondere energieimportierende Volkswirtschaften belastet. Vor diesem Hintergrund schrumpften die österreichischen Warenexporte im Jahr 2025 nominell um 0,5% und real um 1,1%, während die Warenimporte real um 4,8% zulegten. Die Warenhandelsbilanz verschlechterte sich um 8,8 Mrd. € auf ein Defizit von 6,6 Mrd. €.

Suggested Citation

  • Harald Oberhofer & Elisabeth Christen & Vasily Astrov & Robert Stehrer & Martin Ertl & Adrian Wende & Klaus Weyerstraß, 2026. "FIW-Jahresgutachten 2026 Die österreichische Außenwirtschaft," FIW Annual Report on the Status of the Austrian External Sector series y:2026:m:05, FIW.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsr:fiwjag:y:2026:m:05
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dmitry Matveev & Francisco Ruge-Murcia, 2024. "Tariffs and the Exchange Rate: Evidence from Twitter," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(3), pages 1185-1211, September.
    2. Ostry, Daniel & Lloyd, Simon & Corsetti, Giancarlo, 2025. "Trading Blows: The Exchange-Rate Response to Tariffs and Retaliations," CEPR Discussion Papers 20452, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
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