IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Analysis Of Expected Price Dynamics Between Fluid Milk Futures Contracts And Cash Prices For Fluid Milk


  • T. Randall FORTENBERY


  • Robert A. CROPP


  • Hector O. ZAPATA


The objective of this study is to provide an empirical evaluation of the expected relationship between cash and futures prices for fluid milk. This is done using historic cash prices from 1988 to 1995, and making inferences about how futures prices would have behaved if they had traded during this sample period. Futures prices are simulated over the sample period based on two assumptions about futures market behavior for fluid milk. The first is that the futures market will essentially price the Basic Formula Price (BFP). The BFP is an estimate of the previous month's pay price for Grade B manufacturing milk in Minnesota and Wisconsin adjusted for contemporaneous changes in the prices of manufactured milk products. It establishes the federal milk marketing order minimum Grade A pay price for Class III milk used to make cheese, and is the mover of both the minimum Class II price for milk used in soft manufacturing products and the minimum Class I price for beverage milk (Jesse).

Suggested Citation

  • T. Randall FORTENBERY & Robert A. CROPP & Hector O. ZAPATA, 1997. "Analysis Of Expected Price Dynamics Between Fluid Milk Futures Contracts And Cash Prices For Fluid Milk," Staff Papers 407, University of Wisconsin Madison, AAE.
  • Handle: RePEc:wop:wiaesp:407

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Arild Vatn & Daniel Bromley, 1997. "Externalities — A market model failure," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 9(2), pages 135-151, March.
    2. Bromley, Daniel W & Hodge, Ian, 1990. "Private Property Rights and Presumptive Policy Entitlements: Reconsidering the Premises of Rural Policy," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 17(2), pages 197-214.
    3. Bystrom, Olof & Bromley, Daniel W., 1998. "Contracting For Nonpoint-Source Pollution Abatement," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 23(01), July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Altman, Ira J. & Sanders, Dwight & Schneider, Jonathan, 2008. "Producer-Level Hedging Effectiveness of Class III Milk Futures," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers.
    2. Wolf, Christopher A. & Berwald, Derek K., 1999. "The Potential Of Dairy Futures Contracts As Risk Management Tools," 1999 Annual meeting, August 8-11, Nashville, TN 21709, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    3. Bozic, Marin & Newton, John & Thraen, Cameron S. & Gould, Brian W., 2012. "Mean-reversion in Income over Feed Cost Margins:Evidence and Implications for Managing Margin Risk by U.S. Dairy Producers," Staff Papers 132379, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    4. Bozic, Marin & Fortenbery, T., 2015. "Price Discovery, Volatility Spillovers and Adequacy of Speculation when Spot Prices are Stationary: The Case of U.S. Dairy Markets," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211369, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Bozic, Marin, 2011. "Three essays in commodity futures and options price performance," Faculty Theses and Dissertations 160678, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.

    More about this item


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wop:wiaesp:407. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Thomas Krichel). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.