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Analysis of Expected Price Dynamics Between Fluid Milk Futures Contracts and Cash Prices for Fluid Milk

Author

Listed:
  • Fortenbery, T. Randall
  • Cropp, Robert A.
  • Zapata, Hector O.

Abstract

Future contracts for fluid milk began trading in late 1995 and early 1996. This paper investigates the potential use of fluid milk futures contracts as hedge vehicles for dairy producers in the Upper Midwest and California markets. This is done by developing simulated futures prices for the period 1988 to 1995. The simulated futures prices are used to estimate basis relationships between cash and futures prices for the markets considered. Results suggest that the fluid milk futures contracts could be used to reduce market price risk for producers in the Upper Midwest. Results were less conclusive for California producers.

Suggested Citation

  • Fortenbery, T. Randall & Cropp, Robert A. & Zapata, Hector O., 1997. "Analysis of Expected Price Dynamics Between Fluid Milk Futures Contracts and Cash Prices for Fluid Milk," Journal of Agribusiness, Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia, vol. 15(2).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:jloagb:90427
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Altman, Ira J. & Sanders, Dwight & Schneider, Jonathan, 2008. "Producer-Level Hedging Effectiveness of Class III Milk Futures," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers.
    2. Wolf, Christopher A. & Berwald, Derek K., 1999. "The Potential Of Dairy Futures Contracts As Risk Management Tools," 1999 Annual meeting, August 8-11, Nashville, TN 21709, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    3. Bozic, Marin, 2011. "Three essays in commodity futures and options price performance," Faculty Theses and Dissertations 160678, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    4. Bozic, Marin & Newton, John & Thraen, Cameron S. & Gould, Brian W., 2012. "Mean-reversion in Income over Feed Cost Margins:Evidence and Implications for Managing Margin Risk by U.S. Dairy Producers," Staff Papers 132379, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    5. Bozic, Marin & Fortenbery, T., 2015. "Price Discovery, Volatility Spillovers and Adequacy of Speculation when Spot Prices are Stationary: The Case of U.S. Dairy Markets," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211369, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

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