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Macroeconomic management and the black market for foreign exchange in Sudan

Author

Listed:
  • Elbadawi, Ibrahim A.

Abstract

The author uses a simple general equilibrium model to derive a forward-looking linear solution for the premium on the black market for foreign exchange in Sudan. His solution accounts for the long-run fundamentals of the premium that operate through the current account balance. It also accounts for the short-run determinants of the asset market. Estimates based on Sudanese data broadly corroborate the model's predictions. The author's thesis is that successful exchange rate unification and subsequent integration of the parallel market into Sudan's regular economy will require deep fiscal reform and liberalization of trade and exchange rate policies tailored to the pace of macroeconomic reform. His results show that controlling inflation becomes more difficult under high-premium regimes and that higher premiums hurt official exports and tax revenue from foreign trade. A high premium also tends to accelerate capital flight.

Suggested Citation

  • Elbadawi, Ibrahim A., 1992. "Macroeconomic management and the black market for foreign exchange in Sudan," Policy Research Working Paper Series 859, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:859
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Elbadawi, Ibrahim & de Rezende Rocha, Robert, 1992. "Determinants of expatriate workers'remittances in North Africa and Europe," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1038, The World Bank.
    2. Ebaidalla Mahjoub Ebaidalla, 2017. "Determinants and Macroeconomic Impact of Parallel Market For Foreign Exchange in Sudan," Working Papers 1155, Economic Research Forum, revised 11 2017.
    3. Dulce Redín & Reyes Calderón & Ignacio Ferrero, 2014. "Exploring the Ethical Dimension of Hawala," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 124(2), pages 327-337, October.
    4. Ebaidalla Mahjoub Ebaidalla & Abdalla Ali Edriess, 2012. "Flow of Migrants’ Remittances into Sudan: the Role of Macroeconomic Environment," Working Papers 741, Economic Research Forum, revised 2012.

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