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Price seasonality in Africa : measurement and extent

Author

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  • Gilbert,Christopher L.
  • Christiaensen,Luc
  • Kaminski,Jonathan
  • Gilbert,Christopher L.
  • Christiaensen,Luc
  • Kaminski,Jonathan

Abstract

Everyone knows about seasonality. But what exactly do we know? This study systematically measures seasonal price gaps at 193 markets for 13 food commodities in seven African countries. It shows that the commonly used dummy variable or moving average deviation methods to estimate the seasonal gap can yield substantial upward bias. This can be partially circumvented using trigonometric and sawtooth models, which are more parsimonious. Among staple crops, seasonality is highest for maize (33 percent on average) and lowest for rice (16½ percent). This is two and a half to three times larger than in the international reference markets. Seasonality varies substantially across market places, but maize is the only crop in which there are important systematic country effects. Malawi, where maize is the main staple, emerges as exhibiting the most acute seasonal differences. Reaching the Sustainable Development Goal of Zero Hunger requires renewed policy attention to seasonality in food prices and consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Gilbert,Christopher L. & Christiaensen,Luc & Kaminski,Jonathan & Gilbert,Christopher L. & Christiaensen,Luc & Kaminski,Jonathan, 2016. "Price seasonality in Africa : measurement and extent," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7539, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7539
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    Cited by:

    1. Jannike Wichern & Mark T. Wijk & Katrien Descheemaeker & Romain Frelat & Piet J. A. Asten & Ken E. Giller, 2017. "Food availability and livelihood strategies among rural households across Uganda," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 9(6), pages 1385-1403, December.
    2. Tadesse Kuma & Mekdim Dereje & Kalle Hirvonen & Bart Minten, 2019. "Cash Crops and Food Security: Evidence from Ethiopian Smallholder Coffee Producers," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(6), pages 1267-1284, June.
    3. Günther Fink & B. Kelsey Jack & Felix Masiye, 2020. "Seasonal Liquidity, Rural Labor Markets, and Agricultural Production," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(11), pages 3351-3392, November.
    4. Imogen Bellwood‐Howard & Isaac Gershon Kodwo Ansah & Samuel Arkoh Donkoh & Gabin Korbéogo, 2021. "Managing seasonality in West African informal urban vegetable markets: The role of household relations," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(5), pages 874-893, July.
    5. Aggarwal, Shilpa & Francis, Eilin & Robinson, Jonathan, 2018. "Grain today, gain tomorrow: Evidence from a storage experiment with savings clubs in Kenya," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 1-15.
    6. Kibrewossen Abay & Kalle Hirvonen, 2017. "Does Market Access Mitigate the Impact of Seasonality on Child Growth? Panel Data Evidence from Northern Ethiopia," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(9), pages 1414-1429, September.
    7. Sally Smith & Martha Anker & Richard Anker, 2017. "Living Wage Benchmark Report: Ghana, Lower Volta Area (February 2017)," Global Living Wage Coalition (GLWC) 17-01-01, Universidad Privada Boliviana.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crops and Crop Management Systems; Climate Change and Agriculture; Food Security; Nutrition; Macroeconomic Management; Inflation;
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