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Was growth in Egypt between 2005 and 2008 pro-poor ? from static to dynamic poverty profile

Author

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  • Marotta, Daniela
  • Yemtsov, Ruslan
  • El-Laithy, Heba
  • Abou-Ali, Hala
  • Al-Shawarby, Sherine

Abstract

This paper presents a detailed picture of how sustained growth in Egypt over 2005-2008 affected different groups both above and below the poverty line. This analysis, based on the Household Income, Expenditure and Consumption Panel Survey conducted by Egypt’s national statistical agency, compares the changes in the static poverty profiles (based on growth incidence curves on a cross-section of data) with poverty dynamics (relying on panel data, growth incidence curves and transition matrices). The two approaches yield contrasting results: the longitudinal analysis reveals that growth benefited the poor while the cross-sectional analysis shows that the rich benefitted even more. The paper also shows the importance of going beyond averages to look at the trajectories of individual households. Panel data analysis shows that the welfare of the average poor household increased by almost 10 percent per year between 2005 and 2008, enough to move out of poverty. Conversely however, many initially non-poor households were exposed to poverty. As a matter of fact, only 45 percent of the population in Egypt remained consistently out of (near-) poverty throughout the period, while the remaining 55 percent of Egyptians experienced at least one (near-) poverty episode. This high mobility is not a statistical artefact: it reflects the actual process of growth. Taking high vulnerability into account is essential when designing policies to protect the poor and to ensure that growth is really inclusive.

Suggested Citation

  • Marotta, Daniela & Yemtsov, Ruslan & El-Laithy, Heba & Abou-Ali, Hala & Al-Shawarby, Sherine, 2011. "Was growth in Egypt between 2005 and 2008 pro-poor ? from static to dynamic poverty profile," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5589, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5589
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    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2011/03/14/000158349_20110314154349/Rendered/PDF/WPS5589.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. El-Laithy, Heba & Lokshin, Michael & Banerji, Arup, 2003. "Poverty and economic growth in Egypt, 1995-2000," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3068, The World Bank.
    2. Ferreira, Francisco H.G. & Ravallion, Martin, 2008. "Global poverty and inequality : a review of the evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4623, The World Bank.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ssewanyana, Sarah & Kasirye, Ibrahim, 2012. "Poverty and inequality dynamics in Uganda: Insights from the Uganda national Panel Surveys 2005/6 and 2009/10," Research Series 148953, Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC).
    2. El-Baz, Osama, 2014. "Is there a need for a Marshall plan in the Egyptian economy? An investigation of the fiscal stimulus package," MPRA Paper 69717, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Mar 2014.
    3. Valérie BÉRENGER, 2013. "La Croissance A-T-Elle Ete « Pro-Pauvres » En Termes De Niveau De Vie Et D’Education En Egypte Entre 2000 Et 2008 ?," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 37, pages 119-148.
    4. Ali Hashemi, 2016. "Measuring Pro-Poor Growth in Egypt, Jordan, and Palestine," Working Papers 1008, Economic Research Forum, revised Jun 2016.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Rural Poverty Reduction; Achieving Shared Growth; Regional Economic Development; Inequality;

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