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Goals for development : history, prospects and costs

Author

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  • Devarajan, Shantayanan
  • Miller, Margaret J.
  • Swanson, Eric V.

Abstract

The Millennium Development Goals set quantitative targets for poverty reduction and improvements in health, education, gender equality, the environment, and other aspects of human welfare. At existing rates of progress many countries will fall short of these goals. However, if developing countries take steps to improve their policies and increased financial resources are made available, significant additional progress toward the goals is possible. The suthors provide a preliminary estimate of the additional financial resources which would be required if countries would work vigorously toward meeting the Millennium Development Goals. Two estimates of the resource gap are developed, one by estimating the additional resources necessary to increase economic growth so as to reduce income poverty, the other by estimating the cost of meeting specific goals in health, education, and the environment. Both estimates yield a figure in the range of $40-$70 billion in additional assistance per year, which is in line with estimates from other international development agencies and which would roughly represent a doubling of official aid flows over 2000 levels. While the authors believe this is a reasonable first approximation of the costs associated with achieving the Millennium Development Goals, it should be interpreted with caution for several reasons, including the lack of empirical data in many countries to estimate the relationship between expenditures on health or education and related outcomes, or the relationship between investment and growth, the sensitivity of the results to changes in the policy environment (both at the macroeconomic and sector level, and with respect to international trade), and opportunities for increased-and more efficient-domestic resource mobilization.

Suggested Citation

  • Devarajan, Shantayanan & Miller, Margaret J. & Swanson, Eric V., 2002. "Goals for development : history, prospects and costs," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2819, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2819
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. World Bank, 2005. "Ethiopia : Well-Being and Poverty in Ethiopia, The Role of Agriculture and Agency," World Bank Other Operational Studies 8707, The World Bank.
    2. Lange, Simon & Klasen, Stephan, 2017. "How the New International Goal for Child Mortality is Unfair to Sub-Saharan Africa (Again)," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 128-146.
    3. Baulch, Bob, 2006. "Aid distribution and the MDGs," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 933-950, June.
    4. Osakwe, Patrick N. & Ben Hammouda, Hakim, 2006. "Financing Development in Africa: Trends, Issues and Challenges," MPRA Paper 1815, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Renate Schubert & Julia Blasch & Kristin Hoffmann, 2007. "Environmental Protection, Energy Policy and Poverty Reduction – Synergies of an Integrated Approach," IED Working paper 07-01, IED Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich.
    6. Dalgaard, Carl-Johan & Erickson, Lennart, 2009. "Reasonable Expectations and the First Millennium Development Goal: How Much Can Aid Achieve?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 1170-1181, July.
    7. Simplice Asongu, 2014. "The Questionable Economics of Development Assistance in Africa: Hot-Fresh Evidence, 1996–2010," The Review of Black Political Economy, Springer;National Economic Association, vol. 41(4), pages 455-480, December.
    8. Barbara Bruns & Alain Mingat & Ramahatra Rakotomalala, 2003. "Achieving Universal Primary Education by 2015 : A Chance for Every Child," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 15121.
    9. Anil Markandya & Sununtar Setboonsarng & Qiao Yu Hui & Rachanee Songkranok & Adam Stefan, 2010. "The Costs of Achieving the Millennium Development Goals through Adopting Organic Agriculture," Development Economics Working Papers 23015, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    10. Caren A. Grown & Chandrika Bahadur & Jessie Handbury & Diane Elson, 2006. "The Financial Requirements of Achieving Gender Equality and Women's Empowerment," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_467, Levy Economics Institute.
    11. Kishtany, Naill & Alemayehu, Seyoum Taffesse, 2009. "Achieving The MDGs – a Note," Ethiopian Journal of Economics, Ethiopian Economics Association, vol. 18(1).
    12. Clemens, Michael A. & Kenny, Charles J. & Moss, Todd J., 2007. "The Trouble with the MDGs: Confronting Expectations of Aid and Development Success," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 735-751, May.
    13. Ashwani Saith, 2006. "Forum 2006," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 37(6), pages 1167-1199, November.
    14. Fan, Shenggen & Johnson, Michael & Saurkar, Anuja & Makombe, Tsitsi, 2008. "Investing in African agriculture to halve poverty by 2015:," IFPRI discussion papers 751, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    15. Michael Clemens, 2004. "The Long Walk to School: International Education Goals in Historical Perspective," Working Papers 37, Center for Global Development.
    16. Nwachukwu, Jacinta, 2011. "Halving poverty in HIPC countries by 2015: How costly if achievable?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 213-225, March.
    17. Adil Najam & Cutler Cleveland, 2003. "Energy and Sustainable Development at Global Environmental Summits: An Evolving Agenda," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 117-138, March.
    18. -, 2008. "Millennium development goals: progress towards the right to health in Latin america and the Caribbean," Libros y Documentos Institucionales, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 2919 edited by Eclac, April.

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