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The Workforce Consequences of Ending Mandatory Union Fees: Evidence from Janus v. AFSCME

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Abstract

Public-sector unions shape how state and local governments staff and size their workforces, yet clean shocks to union power are rare. The 2018 ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court in Janus v. AFSCME provided one, eliminating mandatory agency fees in the 21 states that had previously permitted them. I use a difference-in-differences design comparing affected states with right-to-work states and draw on two complementary datasets: three waves of the Census of Governments (CoG) and a balanced 2011–2025 annual panel that combines the CoG with the Annual Survey of Public Employment and Payroll. I find that Janus reduced part-time employment by 6.2 to 8.4 percent while leaving full-time employment unchanged, thereby raising the full-time share of the workforce by 1.13 to 1.75 percentage points. A simple model rationalizes this pattern: because union power sustained the part-time periphery, weakening it shifts the adjustment onto the least-protected positions rather than the full-time core. Per-worker earnings are unchanged for full-time and part-time workers alike, in both datasets. I additionally confirm the earnings null using individual-level CPS and state-level QCEW data.

Suggested Citation

  • Sutirtha Bagchi, 2026. "The Workforce Consequences of Ending Mandatory Union Fees: Evidence from Janus v. AFSCME," Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics Working Paper Series 66, Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics.
    • Handle: RePEc:vil:papers:66
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J45 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Public Sector Labor Markets
    • H75 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Government: Health, Education, and Welfare
    • K31 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - Labor Law
    • J51 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining - - - Trade Unions: Objectives, Structure, and Effects

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