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The Impact of Ending Mandatory Union Fees: Evidence from Administrative Data

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Abstract

The 2018 Supreme Court decision in Janus v. AFSCME eliminated mandatory union fees for public-sector workers, overturning four decades of legal precedent. Using administrative payroll data from 400 jurisdictions across 21 states, I find that dues-paying membership declined by 8.9 to 13.4 percent by 2021, a drop substantially smaller than anticipated. At least three-quarters of this decline reflects the automatic termination of agency fees rather than voluntary exits by union members. Teachers, police, and firefighters maintained relatively stable membership, while support staff experienced declines of 13 to 18 percent. Despite these membership losses, I find no impact on overall earnings.

Suggested Citation

  • Sutirtha Bagchi, 2026. "The Impact of Ending Mandatory Union Fees: Evidence from Administrative Data," Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics Working Paper Series 63, Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics.
    • Handle: RePEc:vil:papers:63
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    File URL: http://repec.library.villanova.edu/workingpapers/VSBEcon63.pdf
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J45 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Public Sector Labor Markets
    • H75 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Government: Health, Education, and Welfare
    • K31 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - Labor Law
    • J51 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining - - - Trade Unions: Objectives, Structure, and Effects

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