IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tin/wpaper/20030040.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Intervention Time Series Analysis of Crime Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Sanjeev Sridharan

    (Westat, Rockville, USA)

  • Suncica Vujic

    (Dept of Econometrics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • Siem Jan Koopman

    (Dept of Econometrics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

Abstract

The Commonwealth of Virginia abolished parole and reformed sentencing for all felony of-fenders committed on or after January 1, 1995. We examine the impact of this legislationon reported crime rates using different time series approaches. In particular, structuraltime series models are considered as an alternative to the Box-Jenkins ARIMA modelsthat form the standard time series approach to intervention analysis. Limited supportfor the deterrent impact of parole abolition and sentence reform is obtained using uni-variate modelling devices, even after including unemployment as an explanatory variabIe.Finally, the flexibility of structural time series models is illustrated by presenting a mul-tivariate analysis that provides some additional evidence of the deterrent impact of thenew legislation.

Suggested Citation

  • Sanjeev Sridharan & Suncica Vujic & Siem Jan Koopman, 2003. "Intervention Time Series Analysis of Crime Rates," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-040/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20030040
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://papers.tinbergen.nl/03040.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Steven D. Levitt, 1996. "The Effect of Prison Population Size on Crime Rates: Evidence from Prison Overcrowding Litigation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(2), pages 319-351.
    2. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Qi Li & Wei Long, 2018. "Do parole abolition and Truth-in-Sentencing deter violent crimes in Virginia?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 2027-2045, December.
    2. Zuzana Janko & Janusz Kokoszewski, 2013. "An Intervention Time Series Analysis: Specialization and Competitiveness in Sports”," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 2177-2190.
    3. Wei Long, 2016. "Does Longer Incarceration Deter or Incapacitate Crimes? New Evidence from Truth-in-Sentencing Reform," Working Papers 1607, Tulane University, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Victor Bystrov, 2018. "Measuring the Natural Rates of Interest in Germany and Italy," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 10(4), pages 333-353, December.
    2. Yukai Yang & Luc Bauwens, 2018. "State-Space Models on the Stiefel Manifold with a New Approach to Nonlinear Filtering," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-22, December.
    3. Raphael, Steven & Winter-Ember, Rudolf, 2001. "Identifying the Effect of Unemployment on Crime," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(1), pages 259-283, April.
    4. Fernández-Macho, Javier, 2008. "Spectral estimation of a structural thin-plate smoothing model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 189-195, September.
    5. Drew Creal & Siem Jan Koopman & Eric Zivot, 2008. "The Effect of the Great Moderation on the U.S. Business Cycle in a Time-varying Multivariate Trend-cycle Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-069/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    6. Avanzi, Benjamin & Taylor, Greg & Vu, Phuong Anh & Wong, Bernard, 2020. "A multivariate evolutionary generalised linear model framework with adaptive estimation for claims reserving," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 50-71.
    7. M. Martin Boyer, 2007. "Resistance (to Fraud) Is Futile," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 74(2), pages 461-492, June.
    8. François R. Velde, 2009. "Chronicle of a Deflation Unforetold," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(4), pages 591-634, August.
    9. Chen, Peimin & Wu, Chunchi, 2014. "Default prediction with dynamic sectoral and macroeconomic frailties," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 211-226.
    10. repec:zbw:bofitp:2019_008 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Yue Zhao & Difang Wan, 2018. "Institutional high frequency trading and price discovery: Evidence from an emerging commodity futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 243-270, February.
    12. Wen Xu, 2016. "Estimation of Dynamic Panel Data Models with Stochastic Volatility Using Particle Filters," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-13, October.
    13. Scott Brave & R. Andrew Butters & Alejandro Justiniano, 2016. "Forecasting Economic Activity with Mixed Frequency Bayesian VARs," Working Paper Series WP-2016-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    14. Eric Heyer & Frédéric Reynès & Henri Sterdyniak, 2004. "Observable and unobservable variables in the theory of the equilibrium rate of unemployment, a comparison between France and the United States," Working Papers hal-01027420, HAL.
    15. Hári, Norbert & De Waegenaere, Anja & Melenberg, Bertrand & Nijman, Theo E., 2008. "Estimating the term structure of mortality," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 492-504, April.
    16. Brave, Scott A. & Gascon, Charles & Kluender, William & Walstrum, Thomas, 2021. "Predicting benchmarked US state employment data in real time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1261-1275.
    17. Alejandro Rodriguez & Esther Ruiz, 2009. "Bootstrap prediction intervals in state–space models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 167-178, March.
    18. Parrini, Alessandro, 2013. "Importance Sampling for Portfolio Credit Risk in Factor Copula Models," MPRA Paper 103745, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Milo Bianchi & Paolo Buonanno & Paolo Pinotti, 2012. "Do Immigrants Cause Crime?," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(6), pages 1318-1347, December.
    20. Randi Hjalmarsson, 2009. "Juvenile Jails: A Path to the Straight and Narrow or to Hardened Criminality?," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 52(4), pages 779-809, November.
    21. Salman Huseynov, 2021. "Long and short memory in dynamic term structure models," CREATES Research Papers 2021-15, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ARIMA models; Intervention; Parole abolition; Regression models; Sentence reform; Structural time series models.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20030040. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tinbergen Office +31 (0)10-4088900 (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/tinbenl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.