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Rational vs. long-run forecasters: Optimal monetary policy and the role of inequality


  • Beqiraj Elton
  • Di Bartolomeo Giovanni
  • Serpieri Carolina


This paper builds a stylized simple sticky-price New Keynesian model where agents' beliefs are not homogeneous. We assume that agents choose optimal plans while considering forecasts of macroeconomic conditions over an infinite horizon. A fraction of them (boundedly rational agents) use heuristics to forecast macroeconomic variables over an infinite horizon. In our framework, we study optimal policies consistent with a second-order approximation of the policy objective from the consumers' utility function, assuming that the steady state is not distorted.

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  • Beqiraj Elton & Di Bartolomeo Giovanni & Serpieri Carolina, 2017. "Rational vs. long-run forecasters: Optimal monetary policy and the role of inequality," wp.comunite 00129, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ter:wpaper:00129

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    Cited by:

    1. Francisco Ilabaca & Fabio Milani, 2020. "Heterogeneous Expectations, Indeterminacy, and Postwar US Business Cycles," CESifo Working Paper Series 8224, CESifo Group Munich.
    2. Beqiraj Elton & Di Bartolomeo Giovanni & Serpieri Carolina, 2017. "Bounded-rationality and heterogeneous agents: Long or short forecasters?," wp.comunite 00132, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
    3. Hagenhoff, Tim & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2019. "The Rationality Bias," BERG Working Paper Series 144, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    4. Beqiraj, Elton & Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Di Pietro, Marco, 2019. "Beliefs formation and the puzzle of forward guidance power," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 20-32.
    5. Jump, Robert Calvert & Levine, Paul, 2019. "Behavioural New Keynesian models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 59-77.
    6. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Carolina Serpieri, 2018. "Robust Optimal Policies in a Behavioural New Keynesian Model," JRC Working Papers JRC111603, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    7. Lustenhouwer, Joep & Hagenhoff, Tim, 2019. "The Rationality Bias," Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203553, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Hagenhoff, Tim, 2018. "An aggregate welfare optimizing interest rate rule under heterogeneous expectations," BERG Working Paper Series 139, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.

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