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Have Prices of Internationally Traded Steam Coal been Marginal Cost Based?

Author

Listed:
  • Trueby, Johannes

    () (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln)

  • Paulus, Moritz

    () (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln)

Abstract

During 2007 and 2008 steam coal prices soared to unprecedented levels. Since then much has been speculated about the drivers of these price peaks. This paper is concerned with the costs of steam coal allocation in the seaborne market and their influence on the price equilibrium. It presents an optimisation model that differentiates between mining technologies and therefore allows to analyse the effects of input price escalation on marginal costs in detail. Since 2005 input prices of commodities used in coal mining and bulk carrier freight rates increased significantly, causing marginal costs to rise. However, this affected suppliers along the global supply curve differently. We find that low-cost intramarginal suppliers experienced higher cost increases than marginal suppliers due to the different production technologies applied. Based on our results we conclude that prices of internationally traded steam coal are generally marginal cost based. However, the all time price spike of 2008 was not caused by cost escalation. We suppose that short-run capacity scarcity was responsible for the soaring prices in this year. Hence, marginal costs are a major determinant of the price equilibrium in the seaborne steam coal market given that capacity is not scarce.

Suggested Citation

  • Trueby, Johannes & Paulus, Moritz, 2010. "Have Prices of Internationally Traded Steam Coal been Marginal Cost Based?," EWI Working Papers 2010-5, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:ewikln:2010_005
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    File URL: http://www.ewi.uni-koeln.de/fileadmin/user_upload/Publikationen/Working_Paper/EWI_WP_10-05_Steam-Coal-and-Marginal-Cost.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Clemens Haftendorn & Franziska Holz, 2008. "Analysis of the World Market for Steam Coal Using a Complementarity Model," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 818, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
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    Cited by:

    1. Paulus, Moritz & Trueby, Johannes & Growitsch, Christian, 2011. "Nations as Strategic Players in Global Commodity Markets: Evidence from World Coal Trade," EWI Working Papers 2011-4, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    2. Paulus, Moritz & Tr├╝by, Johannes, 2011. "Coal lumps vs. electrons: How do Chinese bulk energy transport decisions affect the global steam coal market?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, pages 1127-1137.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Steam coal; Marginal Costs; Mining Technologies; Cost Escalation; Price Peak;

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • L71 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Hydrocarbon Fuels
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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