Analyse de l'effet des règles d'obtention d'un permis de conduire au Québec (1991) sur la sécurité routière

Road safety regulation has been the object of many studies. Its main motivation is related to externalities between individuals (drivers, pedestrian) that cannot been priced directly in different private markets. The object of this research is to evaluate the effects of the changes of the regulations (Quebec 1991) on access to the driving permit on crash rates. It is not always evident that a regulation change will affect the equilibrium level of safety in a given society. We found that the 1991 reform had no significant effect on crash rates, be it for all new drivers, male drivers, female drivers, or any age group taken separately. However, there is an age effect. New drivers, male and female who are at least 20 years old, are at a lower risk than those 16 years old when obtaining the permit. Male drivers who are 17 or 18-19 years old have similar risks as the 16 year olds. These differences between age groups show a great heterogeneity among the new drivers even in their first year, but the 1991 regulation treat all new drivers uniformly. We have also investigated the effect of experience over the first year on crash rates. Average rates for the first three months for women and for the first four months for men are higher than the rates for the subsequent months.