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On modelling credit risk using Arbitrage Free Models

  • Frank Skinner

    ()

    (ICMA Centre, University of Reading)

  • Antonio Diaz

    (Associate Professor - Departamento de Economia y Empresa, Universidad de Castilla - La Mancha, Span)

Registered author(s):

    By examining the distribution of state prices obtained from binomial versions of Jarrow and Turnbull (1995), Lando (1998) and Duffie and Singleton (1999), we are able to suggest which credit risk parameters are of critical interest. We find that it appears worthwhile to parameterize credit risk since even the simplest parameterized model obtains large changes in the distribution of state prices when compared to a non-parameterized model. Similarly we find large differences in the distribution of state prices as we add correlation and moderate changes as we add time varying recovery rates. Finally, the choice between the RM or RF recovery assumption appears innocuous, but the choice between RT and these two recovery assumptions is not.

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    File URL: http://www.icmacentre.ac.uk/pdf/discussion/DP2000-08.pdf
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    Paper provided by Henley Business School, Reading University in its series ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance with number icma-dp2000-08.

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    Length: 24 pages
    Date of creation: Jul 2001
    Date of revision: Mar 2000
    Handle: RePEc:rdg:icmadp:icma-dp2000-08
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    Web page: http://www.henley.reading.ac.uk/

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    1. Sarig, Oded & Warga, Arthur, 1989. "Bond Price Data and Bond Market Liquidity," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(03), pages 367-378, September.
    2. Gregory R. Duffee, 1996. "Estimating the price of default risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. McCulloch, J Huston, 1975. "The Tax-Adjusted Yield Curve," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(3), pages 811-30, June.
    4. Jarrow, Robert A & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1995. " Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 53-85, March.
    5. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-89, October.
    6. Vasicek, Oldrich A & Fong, H Gifford, 1982. " Term Structure Modeling Using Exponential Splines," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(2), pages 339-48, May.
    7. Harrison, J. Michael & Kreps, David M., 1979. "Martingales and arbitrage in multiperiod securities markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 381-408, June.
    8. Jarrow, Robert A & Lando, David & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1997. "A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 481-523.
    9. Edwin J. Elton & T. Clifton Green, 1998. "Tax and Liquidity Effects in Pricing Government Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(5), pages 1533-1562, October.
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