IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/qut/auncer/2007-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Does implied volatility reflect a wider information set than econometric forecasts?

Author

Listed:
  • Ralf Becker
  • Adam Clements

    ()

  • James Curchin

Abstract

Much research has addressed the relative performance of option implied volatilities and econometric model based forecasts in terms of forecasting asset return volatility. The general theme to come from this body of work is that implied volatility is a superior forecast. Some authors attribute this to the fact that option markets use a wider information set when forming their forecasts of volatility. This article considers this issue and determines whether S&P 500 implied volatility reflects a set of economic information beyond its impact on the prevailing level of volatility. It is found, that while the implied volatility subsumes this information, as do model based forecasts, this is only due to its impact on the current or prevailing level of volatility. Therefore, it appears as though implied volatility does not reflect a wider information set than model based forecasts, implying that implied volatility forecasts simply reflect volatility persistence in much the same way of as do econometric models.

Suggested Citation

  • Ralf Becker & Adam Clements & James Curchin, 2007. "Does implied volatility reflect a wider information set than econometric forecasts?," NCER Working Paper Series 15, National Centre for Econometric Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:qut:auncer:2007-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ncer.edu.au/papers/documents/WpNo15May07.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. De Long, J. Bradford & Summers, Lawrence H., 1993. "How strongly do developing economies benefit from equipment investment?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 395-415, December.
    3. Eaton, Jonathan & Kortum, Samuel, 2001. "Trade in capital goods," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1195-1235.
    4. Jones, Charles I., 1994. "Economic growth and the relative price of capital," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 359-382, December.
    5. Mikael Lindahl & Alan B. Krueger, 2001. "Education for Growth: Why and for Whom?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, pages 1101-1136.
    6. J. Bradford De Long & Lawrence H. Summers, 1994. "Equipment Investment and Economic Growth: Reply," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(3), pages 803-807.
    7. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
    8. Benhabib, Jess & Spiegel, Mark M., 2005. "Human Capital and Technology Diffusion," Handbook of Economic Growth,in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 935-966 Elsevier.
    9. Mazumdar, Joy, 2001. "Imported machinery and growth in LDCs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 209-224, June.
    10. Durlauf, Steven N. & Johnson, Paul A. & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2005. "Growth Econometrics," Handbook of Economic Growth,in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 555-677 Elsevier.
    11. Navaretti, Giorgio Barba & Soloaga, Isidro & Takacs, Wendy, 2000. "Vintage Technologies and Skill Constraints: Evidence from U.S. Exports of New and Used Machines," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(1), pages 91-109, January.
    12. Falvey, Rod & Foster, Neil & Greenaway, David, 2007. "Relative backwardness, absorptive capacity and knowledge spillovers," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 230-234, December.
    13. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
    14. Robert B. Barsky & J. Bradford De Long, 1991. "Forecasting Pre-World War I Inflation: The Fisher Effect and the Gold Standard," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, pages 815-836.
    15. J. Bradford DeLong & Lawrence H. Summers, 1992. "Equipment Investment and Economic Growth: How Strong Is the Nexus?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(2), pages 157-212.
    16. Barro, Robert J & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2001. "International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, pages 541-563.
    17. repec:cup:etheor:v:13:y:1997:i:3:p:315-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    19. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, pages 47-78.
    20. Tavares, Jose & Wacziarg, Romain, 2001. "How democracy affects growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 1341-1378, August.
    21. Temple, Jonathan & Voth, Hans-Joachim, 1998. "Human capital, equipment investment, and industrialization," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(7), pages 1343-1362, July.
    22. Benhabib, Jess & Spiegel, Mark M., 1994. "The role of human capital in economic development evidence from aggregate cross-country data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 143-173, October.
    23. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 178-183.
    24. Wolfgang Keller, 2004. "International Technology Diffusion," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, pages 752-782.
    25. Bai, Jushan, 1997. "Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(03), pages 315-352, June.
    26. Alan J. Auerbach & Kevin A. Hassett & Stephen D. Oliner, 1994. "Reassessing the Social Returns to Equipment Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(3), pages 789-802.
    27. Temple, Jonathan, 1998. "Equipment Investment and the Solow Model," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(1), pages 39-62, January.
    28. Richard R. Nelson & Edmond S. Phelps, 1965. "Investment in Humans, Technological Diffusion and Economic Growth," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 189, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    29. Hendricks, Lutz, 2000. "Equipment investment and growth in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, pages 335-364.
    30. Andrew M. Warner, 1992. "Did the Debt Crisis Cause the Investment Crisis?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(4), pages 1161-1186.
    31. Temple, Jonathan, 1999. "A positive effect of human capital on growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 131-134, October.
    32. Jörg MAYER, 2001. "Technology Diffusion, Human Capital And Economic Growth In Developing Countries," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 154, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    33. Lee, Jong-Wha, 1995. "Capital goods imports and long-run growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 91-110, October.
    34. Pritchett, Lant, 1996. "Where has all the education gone?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1581, The World Bank.
    35. Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
    36. Hans-Jurgen Engelbrecht, 2002. "Human capital and international knowledge spillovers in TFP growth of a sample of developing countries: an exploration of alternative approaches," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(7), pages 831-841.
    37. Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March.
    38. J. Bradford De Long & Lawrence H. Summers, 1991. "Equipment Investment and Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 445-502.
    39. Eaton, Jonathan & Kortum, Samuel, 1999. "International Technology Diffusion: Theory and Measurement," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(3), pages 537-570, August.
    40. Jörg MAYER, 2000. "Globalization, Technology Tranfer And Skill Accumulation In Low-Income Countries," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 150, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    41. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Implied volatility; VIX; volatility forecasts; informational efficiency;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:qut:auncer:2007-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (School of Economics and Finance). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/ncerrau.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.