Bayesian Methods of Forecasting Inventory Investment in South Africa
This paper develops a Bayesian Vector Error Correction Model (BVECM) for forecasting inventory investment in South Africa. The model is estimated using quarterly data on actual sales, production, unfilled orders, price levels and interest rates, for the period of 1978 to 2000. The out-of-sample-forecast accuracy obtained from the BVECM, over the forecasting horizon of 2001:1 to 2003:4, is compared with those generated from the Classical variant of the VAR and the VECM, the Bayesian VAR, and the ECM of inventory investment developed by Smith et al. (2006) for the South African economy. The BVECM with the most tight prior outperforms all the other models, except for a relatively tight BVAR. This BVAR model also correctly predicts the direction of change of inventory investment over the period of 2004:1 to 2006:3.
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2007|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: PRETORIA, 0002|
Phone: (+2712) 420 2413
Fax: (+2712) 362-5207
Web page: http://www.up.ac.za/economics
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:200704. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rangan Gupta)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.