Dynamiques de la pauvreté au Niger[Dynamics of poverty in Niger]

This article tries to highlight the monetary dynamics of poverty at Niger during the period 2005 and 2007-2008. Firstly, the analysis related to the traditional measuring instruments of poverty - indices FGT, stochastic predominance, sectoral decomposition, etc - reveals a statistically significant fall of poverty during the period considered in spite of some sectoral disparities. Secondly, a new stratification of the individuals, forms of poverty and vulnerability were operated. In this respect, the results suggest that chronic poverty strongly fell - 0,844 to 0,586, but transitory poverty as for it increased - 0,155 to 0,414. In addition, the deepening of dimensions of the vulnerability lets foresee that the fragile layers of the population did not know a fall of their average probability of vulnerability - 0,727 to 0,702 and 0,661 to 0,665, respectively for the chronic poor and non poor but vulnerable and precarious. Lastly, the exploration of the determinants of dimensions of poverty and the vulnerability using a logistic model multinomial, watch that the explanatory factors of poverty and/or vulnerability are inherent: (I) with the socio-economic statute: the families directed by a farmer are more likely to be localized in the bottoms segments of the distribution of the standard of living; (II) on the educational level: the households led by a chief without instruction, are likely more to be identified in the segment of the chronic poor compared to a chief who has a secondary level; (III) with the geographical location: the econometric analysis confirms that poverty remains traditionally massive in the four great areas of the country - Dosso, Maradi, Tillabéry and Zinder - where the probabilities of chronic poverty are highest.