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Causality between Malaysian Islamic Stock Market and Macroeconomic Variables

Author

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  • Naseri, Marjan
  • Masih, Mansur

Abstract

This paper makes an attempt to analyse the causality between Islamic stock market and three macroeconomic variables in the case of Malaysia. Although there are numerous studies investigating relationship between conventional stock market and macroeconomic fundamentals, there is a certain gap in the literature pertaining to the relationship between Islamic indices and macroeconomic variables which are becoming an interesting area of research due to fast growing force of Islamic finance. Thus, this paper examines the long-term equilibrium relationships between FTSE Bursa Malaysia Emas Shariah Index as a proxy for Islamic stock market and three selected macroeconomic variables namely, money supply, consumer price index and exchange rate. The methods applied are the Long run structural modelling, vector error correction and variance decomposition techniques. The stability of the functions has also been tested by CUSUM and CUSUM SQUARE tests. Our findings tend to suggest that there is a cointegration between Islamic stock market and chosen macroeconomic variables and as expected, macroeconomic variables have had influences on Islamic stock market in Malaysia. These findings have policy Implications in that controlling the macroeconomic variables such as, inflation rate, aggregate money supply and exchange rate will help enhance Islamic stock market in Malaysia.

Suggested Citation

  • Naseri, Marjan & Masih, Mansur, 2013. "Causality between Malaysian Islamic Stock Market and Macroeconomic Variables," MPRA Paper 60247, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:60247
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pramod Kumar, Naik & Puja, Padhi, 2012. "The impact of Macroeconomic Fundamentals on Stock Prices revisited: An Evidence from Indian Data," MPRA Paper 38980, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Mansor H. Ibrahim & Hassanuddeen Aziz, 2003. "Macroeconomic variables and the Malaysian equity market: A view through rolling subsamples," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 30(1), pages 6-27, January.
    3. Yu Hsing, 2011. "The Stock Market and Macroeconomic Variables in a BRICS Country and Policy Implications," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 1(1), pages 12-18.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Nurasyikin Jamaludin & Shahnaz Ismail & Syamimi Ab Manaf, 2017. "Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Returns: Panel Analysis from Selected ASEAN Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 37-45.
    2. Ali Umar Ahmad & Adam Abdullah & Zunaidah Sulong & Ahmad Tijjani Abdullahi, 2015. "The Review of Stock Returns and Macroeconomic Variables," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 5(5), pages 154-181, May.
    3. Farid, Hazim & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "Is there any causal link between shariah index and islamic unit trust growth ? Malaysian evidence," MPRA Paper 106226, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Malaysian stock market; macroeconomic variables; time series techniques; Granger-causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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