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The Monetary Model of Exchange Rate in Nigeria: an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach

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  • Evans, Olaniyi

Abstract

This study examines the monetary model of exchange rate in Nigeria, using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach over the period 1998Q1 to 2012Q2. The estimation results show that there is long run relationship among variables of the monetary model of exchange rate for Nigeria. That is, the estimated coefficients of the money supply, income and interest rate differentials support the monetary exchange rate model. As well, the stability test of CUSUM shows that there exists a significant and stable monetary model of exchange rate determination for Nigeria. Therefore, this study recommends that market participants in the foreign exchange market may monitor and forecast future exchange rate movements using the money supplies, incomes and interest rates variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Evans, Olaniyi, 2013. "The Monetary Model of Exchange Rate in Nigeria: an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach," MPRA Paper 52457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:52457
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1976. " A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 200-224.
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    4. Sovannroeun SAMRETH & Dara LONG, 2008. "The Monetary Model of Exchange Rate: Evidence from the Philippines Using ARDL Approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(31), pages 1-13.
    5. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    6. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    7. Adawo, Monday A. & Effiong, Ekpeno L., 2013. "Monetary exchange rate model as a long-run phenomenon: evidence from Nigeria," MPRA Paper 46407, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2002. "Testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination: new evidence from a century of data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 359-385, December.
    9. Jae-Kwang Hwang, 2001. "Dynamic forecasting of monetary exchange rate models: Evidence from cointegration," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 7(1), pages 51-64, February.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary model; exchange rate; Autoregressive Distributed Lag; money supply; income and interest rate differentials;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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